Research On Comprehensive Evaluation Model Of Logistics Financial Risk Based On Decision Tree Method

Logistics finance is an innovative business that develops in coordination with the financial sector and the logistics industry.It meets the requirements of the high-quality development of my country's market economy.In recent years,the country has issued corresponding policies to ensure the stable and efficient development of my country's logistics industry and promote industrial transformation and upgrading.The development of logistics financial business can promote the improvement of the service level of the logistics industry and bring new profit growth points.It can bring common benefits to logistics financial providers,supply chain service enterprises and financial institutions.However,the participating entities are faced with various risks,and the requirements for effective identification and reasonable avoidance of risks have been further increased.Due to the relatively short development time of logistics finance in my country,which is different from the dynamic supervision of logistics finance in foreign countries,there is currently no unified standard for risk management such as the monitoring,measurement,and early warning of logistics financial risks in our country.In addition,due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic,the global economic trend has declined,and the risk of financial crises has increased.It is urgent to improve my country's ability to prevent and control various emergencies.Based on the combination of domestic and foreign logistics financial theoretical research and logistics financial risk research,this research summarizes the main business model risk sources of logistics financial risk.After sorting out the logistics financial business model,the risk analysis of different entities participating in the logistics financial business is carried out,and the conclusions of risk sources include:credit risk,pledge risk,logistics enterprise management risk,legal contract risk,external Five categories of environmental risks.After identifying the risk categories,using the data obtained based on investigation and research,the logistics financial risk indicators were evaluated scientifically,reliably and effectively,and a logistics financial risk indicator system adapted to the decision tree method was constructed.The research uses the decision tree algorithm in machine learning,and on the basis of the constructed risk index system,the decision tree model method is used to evaluate and classify logistics financial risks.Regional factors were taken into consideration in the selection of data,and focus on areas where business was concentrated was investigated.During the construction of the decision tree,different data were pruned with different severity,and the model was evaluated and tested.The research results show that the construction method of decision tree can effectively classify logistics financial risks,and has good adaptability,and the accuracy rate can also be within a reasonable range.Finally,in view of the different risk sources under the risk system,combined with the specific business of logistics finance,it puts forward suggestions for effective prevention of risks for different entities.