| Earthquake disaster has extremely strong destructive capabilities and has a wide range of impacts.Because there are many kinds and large quantities of dangerous substances gathered in the chemical industrial park,once the earthquake disaster occurs,it will not only bring great harm to the park itself but also spread to the surrounding areas,leading to serious accident consequences.Combined with the characteristics of the earthquake disaster and the equipment and facilities in the chemical industrial park,this paper deeply explores the earthquake cascading disaster accident scenario in the chemical industrial park,which is helpful to reduce the earthquake damage loss in the chemical industrial park.The research contents of this paper mainly include:(1)In this paper,the number and distribution of chemical industrial parks in China are counted,and the frequency and historical maximum magnitude of earthquakes in each province and city in China in recent 50 years are analyzed,as well as the impact of earthquake disasters in each administrative region,to understand the destructiveness of earthquake disaster-causing factors.Collect chemical accident cases caused by historical earthquakes,summarize and sort out the forms of earthquake damage in the chemical industrial parks,and describe the composition of disaster-bearing bodies inside the chemical industrial park.Based on the theory of energy transfer of earthquake disaster,the energy transfer process under the action of earthquake disaster is analyzed,the evolution process of earthquake cascade disaster in the chemical industrial park is understood,and the common chemical accidents caused by earthquake disaster and their characteristics are summarized.(2)Taking the cascading disaster accidents induced by earthquakes in chemical industrial parks as the research object,D-S evidence theory and Bayesian network model were combined to conduct the research.The results show that with the increase of seismic intensity,the probability of chemical equipment,infrastructure,chemical accidents,and casualties in the park is also increasing.When the seismic intensity of a chemical industrial park is ?,the probability of fire,explosion,and poisoning is 0.252,0.123,and0.107,respectively,and the probability of casualties within the unacceptable range becomes 0.029.The impact of "emergency response" and "personnel density" on the "casualty" node was compared and analyzed.When the personnel density of the park was high and the states of the other nodes were determined,the probability of casualties within the unacceptable range would be reduced by 0.008 due to the timeliness of the emergency response.(3)To achieve the purpose of "scenario-response" emergency management,the established Bayesian network model of earthquake cascading disaster accidents in the chemical industrial parks was used to set situational conditions according to the future development trend of predicted scenarios.Based on the characteristics of earthquake disasters and accidents,this paper proposes a scenario representation model(CFSE)of earthquake cascades and accidents in chemical industrial parks and makes probabilistic reasoning on hypothetical scenarios.Based on this,the emergency response procedure of earthquake disasters and accidents in chemical industrial parks is determined,the warning area of the accident site is divided,and the emergency management method is proposed.To sum up,based on sorting out statistical historical cases,this paper carries out probabilistic reasoning on the earthquake cascade disaster scenarios of chemical industrial parks according to the Bayesian network and scenario analysis methods.Under the setting of different scenario conditions,the emergency countermeasures are systematically proposed to improve the emergency management capability of earthquake accidents in chemical industrial parks in China. |
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