Land Use Analysis And Multi-scenario Simulation In Wuxi City Based On Markov-FLUS Model

While mankind promotes social and economic development,it has also caused land to be destroyed to varying degrees.Land Use/Cover Change(LUCC)plays a vital role in human production,life and ecosystems.Explore The characteristics and laws of urban land use spatial pattern change can effectively obtain the future development direction and distribution pattern of land use,so that scientific countermeasures and suggestions can be put forward.This paper takes Wuxi City,Jiangsu Province as the research area,based on the land use classification data of 2005,2010,2015 and 2018,and uses GIS to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics and processes of land use in different environments in Wuxi City over the past 13 years.Combining the study area's own conditions,select multiple driving factors that affect land use changes,and use Logistic regression to analyze the selected driving factors to explore the mechanism of land use change and the relationship between driving factors and it;according to different future development trends of the city,set three development scenarios,comprehensively use Markov and FLUS coupling models to predict the land use distribution pattern of the study area under the three scenarios in 2031,and finally put forward corresponding countermeasures for the study area based on the results.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)Cultivated land,water area,and construction land dominate the land use types in Wuxi City.During 2005-2018,all land types have changed to varying degrees.Among them,the area of arable land,woodland and grassland decreased by 416.06 km~2,2.78 km~2,and 1.89 km~2,respectively.Cultivated land has decreased the most;water,construction land,and unused land area have increased to varying degrees.The largest increase is construction land.This is due to the rapid economic development of Wuxi City during the research phase and the urbanization process has led to an increase in the demand for construction land.A total of 398.71 km~2has been increased in 13 years,and the area of water and unused land has increased by 11.2 km~2 and 10.66 km~2respectively.(2)Through the analysis of the dynamics and transfer matrix of the land types,it is found that the various land types have undergone violent movement and mutual transformation during the study period.During the period from 2005 to 2018,the average value of comprehensive land use dynamics in Wuxi was 0.63%,indicating that the land use changes during the study period were relatively active;the construction land has the highest degree of circulation,with the largest number of transfers and transfers in the three time periods,followed by cultivated land;unused land is the least active among the six types.Because of its small area,the circulation area is also relatively small.(3)The Logistic model is used to analyze the driving factors.The results show that the ROC values of the 6 types of land use and the 8 types of driving factors are all greater than 0.7,indicating that the regression model established in this paper is effective,and the selected driving factors can explain land use well,which can further explain that the factors affecting land change do not exist independently.(4)Combining the Markov model and the FLUS model to simulate the land use distribution pattern in 2018 based on the current land use data in 2005.The simulation result is verified by the Kappa coefficient to be 0.85,indicating that the model and the relevant parameters set during the simulation process meet the accuracy requirements,the feasibility is higher.(5)This paper sets three scenarios of"natural development","cultivated land protection"and"ecological protection"to simulate land use changes in Wuxi City in2031.The results show that the land use under the three scenarios can be regulated to a certain extent,but the types of land use There are still problems such as unreasonable structure and layout.In response to these shortcomings,corresponding countermeasures are proposed in combination with the actual situation in Wuxi to achieve sustainable development of land.