Inspection And Improvement Of The Quality Of Credit Rating In Coal Industry

Since 2018,China’s economic growth has slowed down,and the financial market has emphasized strict supervision.The combination of the two has led to the release of credit risk in the bond market.The annual default scale reached 133.5 billion yuan,a record high,and the default event has developed toward a normal situation.According to the industry,the top three default scales are Trading,Mining and Integrated industry.Combined with industry characteristics,this paper selected the mining(i.e.coal)industry and conducted empirical and case analysis on the quality of its credit rating.The selected default entity is the first AA+default entity in the market,and it is also the largest subject of default in the coal industry,a medium-sized coal private enterprise Yongtai Energy Co.,Ltd.In the inspection analysis,it first analyzes the history of its default,finds the point and cause of the negligence of the rating agency,and initially evaluates the quality of the rating.After that,the individual’s credit qualifications were analyzed.The main problem was that the fluctuation of the coal cycle caused the operation to fail to provide sufficient liquidity.The superimposed financial supervision led to the impediment of the development model of the debt.The company was able to pledge the high-quality assets,and eventually led to The company became the first AA+default entity in the market.Compare the credit qualification and rating report,evaluate the timeliness and rationality of the rating to check the quality of the rating,and emphasize that the rating quality inspection system should focus on comprehensiveness and in-depth.Moreover,give an essential reference for the coal industry rating,that is,related transaction combing,depreciation and amortization policy,price comparison of tons of coal.After examining the indirect consistency of the quality of individual subject ratings through case studies,continued the empirical analysis of the overall rating quality.In the empirical analysis,the time window of the inflection point of the coal market from 2015 to 2018 was selected,covering all coal entities and issuing bonds.According to the quality of the credit rating and its respective testing methods,First of all,the consistency of the rating quality of the coal industry adopts the three modes of average rating before default,credit spread test,and Gini coefficient test.Then the Cohort method is used to calculate the grade migration matrix for the stability of its rating quality,and the validity of the hierarchical migration matrix is confirmed by the chi-square test method.In the test of the two properties,the industry’s overall test is carried out first,and then the comparison test between the agencies.Through empirical analysis,we have obtained poor consistency in the current coal industry rating quality,and there are short-term continuous downward adjustments of the main body rating before several default events.In terms of grades,the quality of AA+rating and AA rating is inferior;in terms of institutions,China Credit Rating Co.has the best quality in terms of consistency,followed by Lianhe Credit Rating Co.,China Chengxin Credit Management Co.Dagong Credit Rating Co.,the final,stability,China Credit Rating Co.rating quality is still the best,Lianhe Credit Rating Co.second,Dagong Credit Rating Co.third,and finally China Chengxin Credit Management Co.Finally,the test consistency should be used to use the default rate data.The test stability can choose the level migration matrix of the appropriate time window,and emphasize that the current timely should be more focused.