Research On The Dynamic Relationship And Transmission Effect Of Domestic And International Coal Prices

Coal dominates the supply and consumption of energy in our country and is an inexhaustible driving force for the continuous growth of national economy.In recent years,with the continuous increase of China’s coal imports and the gradual expansion of coal futures market,the relationship between domestic and international coal markets has become increasingly close.In order to better understand the operation rules of domestic and international coal markets and the transmission process of price information,and improve China’s influence and discourse power in the international coal market,it is of great significance to study the dynamic relationship between domestic and international coal prices and the transmission effect.Therefore,on the basis of exploring the fluctuation characteristics and correlation of coal prices at home and abroad as well as the internal mechanism of coal price transmission effect at home and abroad,this paper tests the dynamic relationship and transmission effect of coal prices at home and abroad through empirical research,and draws relevant conclusions.The main research work and conclusions are as follows:(1)Based on EG co-integration test,error correction model and Granger causality test,the dynamic relationship between domestic and international coal prices is empirically studied.The research shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship and a short-term adjustment mechanism between domestic and international coal prices,and the international coal price plays a dominant role in the equilibrium relationship,and the international coal price is the single Granger reason for the domestic coal price.(2)The VAR model is established,and the empirical research on the transmission effect of domestic and international coal prices based on trade channel is studied by impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis.The research shows that domestic coal prices transmit the price information to the international coal market more quickly through trade channels,but have less influence on the international coal market.In the short term,the price transmission of trade channels has a great influence on China’s coal market,while in the long term,it has a greater influence on the international coal market.(3)The VAR model is established,and the empirical research on the transmission effect of domestic and international coal prices based on futures market is studied by impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis.The research shows that the domestic coal futures market transmits the price information to the international coal spot market more slowly,but has a greater influence on the international coal spot market.The international coal futures market has a greater direct impact on the domestic coal spot market,and the transmission between the coal spot prices is more effective in each country.This paper further enriches the research results of domestic and international coal prices,and the conclusions and suggestions have certain reference significance to the formulation of coal-related policies and the relevant decisions of the main bodies of the coal market.