| "The Belt and Road" initiative is committed to improving the level of inter-regional connectivity and inter-regional multilateral cooperation to create an open,inclusive and mutually beneficial global cooperation framework.The in-depth advancement of "The Belt and Road" construction will reshape China’s opening-up strategic pattern and make the western region far from the end of the reform and opening up of the coastal areas a frontier opening to the west.At the same time,the national new urbanization plan proposed to guide about 100 million people to urbanization in the central and western regions.It can be seen that the construction of "The Belt and Road" will further accelerate the urbanization of the central and western regions,promote the connection with the new urbanization plan,and help the central and western provinces and cities to seek more development opportunities.In order to promote better exchanges and cooperation between countries and regions along the Silk Road,2015 was designated as the "Beautiful China-Silk Road Tourism Year",which is an important opportunity for the development of tourism along the provinces and cities along "The Belt and Road".More importantly,the construction of "The Belt and Road" must follow the concept of sustainable development.Most of"The Belt and Road" in the country is fragile in the ecological environment,which seriously affects the continuation and inheritance of the Silk Road civilization.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical value to explore the coupling and coordinated development level of tourism industry-new-type urbanization-ecological environment system in "The Belt and Road" node provinces and cities.Thesis takes "The Belt and Road" node provinces and cities as a case study,and builds a tourism industry-new-type urbanization-ecological environment coupling coordination degree index system based on a comprehensive analysis of the tourism industry-new-type urbanization-ecological environment coupling mechanism.The comprehensive development level and temporal and spatial characteristics of the "T-U-E" subsystem are analyzed.Secondly,using the coupling coordination model and ArcGIS spatial analysis method,the coupling degree of "T-U-E" system in "The Belt and Road"node provinces and cities from 2004 to 2017 and its temporal and spatial evolution law are explored.Finally,the grey forecasting model is used to predict its future development trend.The results show:(1)The comprehensive development level and time-space characteristics of the "T-U-E" subsystem of "The Belt and Road" node provinces and cities from 2004 to 2017 were quantitatively analyzed.From the perspective of time series changes,the comprehensive development level of "T-U-E"subsystems has been improved with time.Relatively speaking,the comprehensive development level of tourism industry subsystem and new-type urbanization subsystem is higher than ecological environment subsystem.From the perspective of spatial characteristics,the horizontal distribution pattern of the comprehensive development level of the tourism industry subsystem and the new urbanization subsystem is similar;showing a pattern of decreasing from the southeast coastal area to the western area,and the spatial distribution pattern of the comprehensive development level of the ecological environment subsystem is significantly different..(2)The coupling degree model is used to quantitatively measure the coupled and coordinated development status and temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of the industrial development and ecological environment of the "T-U-E" system in ’The Belt and Road" node provinces and cities.From the time change,the coordination degree of "T-U-E" system in 2004～2017 showed a relatively stable upward trend;from the spatial pattern,the four-time "T-U-E" system coupling in 2004,2008,2012 and 2017 the coordination degree shows the spatial trend of "south-high and low-west",in which the low-coupling coordination level gradually shifts to the west,and the high-coupling coordination level expands in the southeast coastal area and forms a stable agglomeration center.In addition,through the analysis of spatial regression model,the main influencing factors of coupling coordination level are economic development quality,tourism scale effect,and urban civilization degree and government attention.(3)The grey prediction model is used to analyze the coupling and development trend of the "T-U-E"system in "The Belt and Road" node provinces and cities from 2018 to 2026.The results show that,according to the current development trend,the coordinated development level of the "T－U-E" system in the“The Belt and Road”node province will continue to improve.From 2018 to 2023,the eastern coastal areas are still the areas with the highest level of coupling coordination.However,the growth rate of coupling and coordination levels in the eastern coastal areas slowed down from 2024 to 2026,and the coordination and coordination level of nodes in other regions exceeded the eastern coastal areas. |
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