| Since the reform and opening up,China’s rural poor population has continued to decline.With the decrease of the absolute poverty population,rural poverty presents new characteristics of concentration,vulnerability and dynamic.Different from the traditional static poverty study,this paper focuses on rural poverty vulnerability and the impact of ecological compensation on rural poverty vulnerability,with a view to consolidating the existing poverty relief achievements in the post-poverty era,preventing poverty and providing countermeasures and suggestions to deal with future poverty.Based on the rural survey data of Wuqi County,Shaanxi Province,the characteristics of rural poverty vulnerability index of Wuqi County were measured by FGLS method.The effects of ecological compensation on the vulnerability of rural poverty and the mediating effect of non-farm employment in this process are explored by means of least square method and mediating effect analysis,the specific findings are as follows:(1)The probability of poverty vulnerability in rural areas in Wuqi County is relatively low,and the overall average poverty vulnerability index is about 0.246.About 67.84 percent of non-poor vulnerable households;32.16 percent of vulnerable farmers,compared with 2.11 percent of the latter.According to the analysis of poverty vulnerability structure,poverty vulnerability among peasant households is distributed on the right side,with the highest proportion of "low" level poor vulnerable households,accounting for about 40.64%of the total,while the number of "extremely high" level poor vulnerable households is the least,only 6.73%.(2)The proportion of ecological compensation income is about 12.5%of the household disposable income,the poverty vulnerability index of farmers will decrease by 0.001 with the per capita ecological compensation income increases by 1 yuan,and the 10%significant level test shows that ecological compensation can significantly alleviate the vulnerability of rural poverty.In addition,families with a larger population,older heads of household and health problems,as well as those far from the county seat,are more likely to fall into poverty in the future.The proportion of non-farm employment,the education level of the head of household and the social status of the head of household can significantly alleviate the vulnerability of the household poverty,but the impact of the capital of the family cultivated land and woodland on the vulnerability of the poverty is not obvious.(3)There are mutual effects between ecological compensation,non-agricultural employment and rural poverty vulnerability,and the intermediary effect of non-agricultural employment in the process of alleviating the vulnerability of rural poverty caused by ecological compensation has been verified by using the analysis method of intermediary effect.Based on the above conclusions,the policy suggestions for alleviating the vulnerability of rural poverty are put forward from three dimensions:optimizing the allocation of family resources,strengthening the endogenous development power of farmers,improving the rural business environment,perfecting the rural labor market,strengthening the ecological compensation function and perfecting the external help system. |