Reaching Deep Decarbonization In China’s Passenger Transport Sector Through Regional Tailored Mitigation Options

The CO₂ emission potential of China’s passenger transport sector is huge in the medium and long term,so it is urgent to implement deep decarbonization emission reduction for the passenger transport sector.The significant difference of regional passenger transportation development is an important factor to be considered when implementing deep decarbonization emission reduction policies.This paper uses the cluster analysis to divide 31 provinces into three types of regions:Ⅰregion with developed economic and public transport;Ⅲregion with undeveloped economic and public transport,andⅡregion where every indicator betweenⅠandⅢ.Then,we build a CPPEG model and adopts scenario analysis to study the change trend of transport CO₂ emissions in different regions under different scenarios,and further defines the priority of deep decarbonization emission reduction measures in different regions at different period of time.The results show that,nationwide,the cumulative CO₂ emissions in the CPS scenario will reach19305Mt by 2050.Compared with the CPS scenario,the cumulative CO₂emissions in the DDS scenario will be reduced by about 23%after the implementation of strict public transportation promotion,shifting alternative clean fuel and energy efficiency improvement.From the regional perspective:during the process of deep decarbonization stage,theⅠⅡⅢregion demonstrate the regional disparity and time difference.The various CO₂reduction measures benefit rank as follows;public transportation promotion:Ⅰregion>Ⅱregion>Ⅲregion,energy efficiency improvement:Ⅲregion>Ⅱregion>Ⅰregion;shifting alternative clean fuel 2015-2030:Ⅰregion>Ⅱregion>Ⅲregion;2030-2050:Ⅰregion>Ⅲregion>Ⅱregion.The emission regular of atmospheric pollutants is similar to that of CO₂.In the future,under the positive development of the national electricity supply,we should further pay attention toⅢregion of shifting alternative clean fuel policy,it can bring excellent comprehensive emission reduction effect.