Study On Assessment Of Atmospheric Environmental Security And Early Warning Model In Shandong Province

The atmosphere is an important survival environment factor of all life in the world,which has a certain self-purification ability.However,with the development of industrialization and urbanization,the extensive economic growth model has resulted in a high level of pollution and energy consumption,as well as low efficiency.The disharmony appeared in environmental quality and human society has become increasingly serious,especially in developing countries,where regional atmospheric environmental quality continues to deteriorate.As an important part of national environmental safety,atmospheric environmental security has gradually reached into the public field,and become a hot topic in society and academia.Shandong Province,as a powerful province in economy of China,is confronted with a problem of how to maintain the rapid economic development and the realization of improvement of atmospheric environment at the same time.Complex and serious air pollution has become an important challenge to promote the construction of beautiful Shandong.Researches on establishing corresponding atmospheric environmental safety assessment system,security prediction,early warning system and integrated management support system are urgently needed.In this context,based on the pressure-state-response(PSR)framework,this paper puts forward the comprehensive evaluation index system of atmospheric environmental safety in Shandong Province from social,economic,human and resource aspects.Meanwhile,using the relevant data from 1997 to 2017,the methods of entropy weight and comprehensive index are applied to evaluate and classify the atmospheric environmental safety degree systematically in the whole province and its 17 prefecture-level cities,and predict the evolution trend combined with the grey prediction model.In addition,the spatial-temporal comparative quantitative analysis is carried out by using geographic information system(GIS).The dynamic change trends of the structure and function of the atmospheric environment system in Shandong Province at different stages,including the past,present and future,are described.So as to identify the crucial driving factors and key warning areas.The results showed that:(1)In terms of index weight,the pressure of atmospheric environment makes the most contribution to the comprehensive safety level,followed by the atmospheric state and response layer.Among them,the proportion of tertiary industry,total energy consumption and pollutant emissions are the key factors to be considered in the decision-making related to urban development and atmospheric environment improvement.(2)The comprehensive index of atmospheric environmental security in Shandong Province is fluctuating and rising,and the safety level improved to a relatively safe level,among which the index of response layer continued to rise,indicating that the awareness of social environmental protection was continuously enhanced,and the atmospheric environmental management measures were actively implemented.(3)The atmospheric environmental security degree of 17 prefecture-level cities showed a fluctuation transition trend from 1997 to 2017,and some cities appeared inflection points.But on the whole,it has maintained good momentum to some extent,which demonstrates that the atmospheric environment is unstable in the variation process,and the improvement of atmospheric environment must be persisted for a long time.Spatially,it exhibited obvious heterogeneity in distribution,which followed the pattern of decreasing from northeast to southwest.In addition,the grey prediction results found that the eastern coastal cities such as Qingdao,Yantai and Weihai are the first into the ideal safe state.The atmospheric environmental security values of Jining,Laiwu and Rizhao continue to rise,but still in the early warning state.Finally,according to the results of evaluation and prediction,combined with the actual situation of Shandong Province,we proposed some policy suggestions on the coordinated development of atmospheric environment and social economy in Shandong Province from the aspects of rationalization and heightening of industrial structure,adjustment of energy structure,urban planning and construction,improvement of atmospheric environmental protection system and construction of multi-party governance management platform.