Research On Carbon Emission Driving Factors And Decoupling Effect Of Key Industries In China

In recent years,with the global warming,energy and environmental problems are increasingly aggravating,which has attracted increasing attention from all walks of life at home and abroad.At the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly,China made a commitment to peak its carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060,and included this "3060 goal" in the 14th Five-Year Plan.Among the 20 categories and 90 categories classified by China’s national economy industry classification standards,the carbon emissions of 13 key industries account for more than 95%of the total emissions.The control effect of carbon emission reduction in key industries is very important to whether China can achieve the carbon peak in 2030.Therefore,it is of sufficient research value to decompose the driving factors of carbon emissions in China’s key industries and explore the decoupling status between economic development and carbon emissions in key industries.Based on extensive reading and analysis of relevant domestic and foreign literature,this paper systematically studies the driving factors and decoupling status of carbon emissions in key industries in China by using a variety of models and a combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods.Firstly,according to the characteristics of industrial carbon emissions,data of 13 key industries were selected as research samples to statistically analyze energy consumption and calculate the current situation of industrial carbon emissions.Secondly,a weighted combination model of LMDI and Shapley values was constructed,and Kendall coordination coefficient was used to conduct compatibility test.The research period was divided into four stages from the"10th Five-Year" period to the "13th Five-Year" period.Calculate the energy structure,energy intensity,economic growth,industrial structure and population size five drivers of 13 key industries the driving direction of carbon emissions and driving effect,combined with four typical period of the related policy,economic development and technological progress,etc.,to further explore the mechanism of the driving factors in different industries.Thirdly,based on the decomposition results of driving factors mentioned above,a Tapio decoupling index decomposition model was constructed to calculate the decoupling elasticity of economic growth and carbon emissions in 1 3 key industries,and further analyze the efforts made by energy structure factors,energy intensity factors,industrial structure factors and population size factors in the process of decoupling.Combined with the above research results,carbon emission reduction policy recommendations for the corresponding key industries are put forward according to key factors.The results show that economic development and population growth are the main driving factors for carbon emissions in key industries,while energy structure,energy intensity and industrial structure play a role in inhibiting carbon emissions to some extent.From the perspective of decoupling,the decoupling index of key industries shows a declining trend year by year.The energy structure effect and the industrial structure effect have a greater impact on the decoupling of each industry,while the energy intensity effect has a smaller decoupling effort.In this paper,the effects of driving factors on carbon emissions in key industries are clarified,the decoupling status of carbon emissions in key industries is analyzed,the decoupling effect of different influencing factors is compared,and the carbon emission reduction policy suggestions for key industries are proposed according to the key factors,which has certain theoretical and application value.