Research On The Influencing Factors And Decoupling Prediction Of Carbon Emissions In Liaoning Energy Industry

At present,the issue of global warming has attracted strong attention from the international community.Countries are actively exploring a path to develop a low-carbon economy.China,as the second largest economy in the world,has an important responsibility for controlling the greenhouse effect.China’s current rapid economic development The increase in industrialization and the excessive use of energy have made it more difficult to promote energy conservation and emission reduction.As an important part of the revitalization of Northeast China,Liaoning Province’s economy is overly dependent on the development of heavy industry.Among them,the energy consumption of the energy industry accounts for about 80%of the province’s energy consumption.As the main source of carbon emissions in Liaoning Province,it is the key to achieving the energy conservation and emission reduction tasks in Liaoning.This article analyzes its carbon emission status and influencing factors,and predicts the future carbon emissions of the energy industry in Liaoning Province,providing theoretical support and important practical significance for formulating energy conservation and emission reduction policies.First,this article calculated the carbon dioxide emissions of the energy industry in Liaoning Province from 2000 to 2017 based on the calculation model provided by the IPCC,and analyzed the relevant policies of the energy industry in Liaoning in recent years.On this basis,the LMDI factor decomposition method is used to decompose the changes in carbon emissions of the energy industry during the study period into six structural indicators: energy structure effects;energy intensity effects;energy technology effects;investment structure effects;investment dependence effects;and economic growth effects.Industry carbon emissions levels.The results show that the economic growth effect is the largest driving force for the increase of carbon emissions in the energy industry,and the investment structure effect is the second driving force for carbon emissions.Energy intensity is the most direct way to achieve industry emissions reductions,while the effects of energy structure effects,energy technology effects,and investment dependence on reducing carbon emissions are relatively small.Secondly,according to the Tapio decoupling index model,the decoupling models of carbon emissions,economic growth,and energy intensity of the energy industry in Liaoning Province were separately constructed.On the one hand,there are three decoupling states between carbon emissions and economic growth effects in the energy industry in Liaoning Province: negative decoupling of growth,growth linkage,and weak decoupling,and gradually achieving a "negative growth decoupling"between carbon emissions and economic growth.The transition to “weak decoupling”.On the other hand,there were two types of decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and energy intensity during the study period.They were negative growth decoupling and strong negative decoupling.The relationship between carbon emissions and energy intensity was gradually realized by the "negative growth decoupling"."To" strong negative decoupling." At the same time,the decoupling situation of the four energy industries is also analyzed in detail.Finally,based on the LMDI decomposition method,a decoupling forecasting model for carbon emissions and economic growth in the energy industry in Liaoning Province was established.The relevant parameters of the influencing factors were set respectively.Three scenarios analysis models were established,namely the baseline scenario,the active emission reduction scenario and the strong reduction Schedule.It also predicts the future carbon emissions and economic output value of the energy industry in Liaoning Province under the three scenarios,analyzes the decoupling state between the carbon emissions of the energy industry and economic development,and realizes the decoupling of carbon emissions and economic development as soon as possible.