Research On Operation Risk Assessment Of High Speed Railway Train Control System Based On Set Pair Analysis

As the high-tech means such as the Internet of Things,cloud computing and big data are more and more frequently applied in the field of high-speed railways,the running speed of high-speed railways increase continuously,but the interval between trains decrease continuously,which lays down higher standards for operational safety of high-speed railways.As the core technology of high-speed railway,train control system not only affects operating efficiency,but also directly threatens the life and property safety of train personnel.Therefore,scientific and reasonable methods are needed to evaluate and study the operational risks of train control system in high-speed railway.The factors affecting train control operation risk are complex and diverse and influence each other,which exacerbates the complexity and challenge of risk assessment.Risk assessment technology is a complete description of system risk factors,risk status,and risk prevention and control,thereby reducing or even avoiding the occurrence of unsafe incidents.Train control system as a complex control system,the operation environment is complex,abominable and polytropic,therefore,it is significant practical significance to assess its risks and control the risks within an acceptable range.This thesis proposes an operation risk assessment method of train control system in high-speed railway based on Set Pair Analysis(SPA)taking the operation risk of the train control system in China as the object and combining the actual situation of the site and the research status at home and abroad.The main research of the thesis is as follows:First of all,there is a brief analysis to the structure and working principle of the train control system,and an presentation to the risk definition,risk matrix and risk assessment theory.The train control operation risks are identified from four perspectives of man,machine,environment,and management based on system engineering theory,relevant standards and the number of documents is particularly large.An assessment index system for train control syetem operation risk is established combining with the on-site safety checklist,and the evaluation indicators are quantitatively analyzed.Secondly,it elaborated the SPA theory and related concepts which mainly includes connection situation,partial correlation coefficient and Identity Difference Opposition(IDO)connection degree determination method.The operational risk of train control system was divided into fifth level based on the previous research and the characteristics of risk level definition.Based on the weight determination method of uncertain AHP(analytic hierarchy process)and SPA ternary connection number,a posterior weight determination method based on interval uncertain judgment information is proposed.And then combining the weight and probability of occurrence,a SPA-based method to the operation risk assessment of the train control system is proposed to analyze the risk situation and risk trend of train control operations.It also verified the SPA method taking as an example,analyzed the evaluation results and proposes corresponding management and control measures,which not only conforms to the realistic condition of the site,but also improves the shortcomings of the analysis of the risk trend of train control operations.Furthermore,considering that the operational risks of train control system are both uncertain and dynamic,MARKOV theory is introduced to construct a dynamic assessment model of train control operational risks based on SPA-MARKOV,which can determine connection vector according to the risk level changes of indicators at different times,so as to determine the state transition probability matrix.The MARKOV chain is used to evaluate the operational risks of train control system dynamically,so as to determine the operational risks at different times.An example is used to analyze the dynamic changes of risks in six months,and to predict the operational risks of the train control system on next month and at a steady state,which proves the validity and feasibility of the model.Finally,according to the index system,weight method,risk level and evaluation model proposed in this thesis,and combined with data transmission technology,based on the software platform design of high-speed railway train control operation risk assessment management system.The management system is implemented through page design and program design,and various functional modules and logical architecture of the management system are introduced in detail.The two-way transmission of data is simulated using Bluetooth transmission technology.According to the functional interface of the management system,the method and model proposed in this thesis are verified,and the operation results are analyzed to further verify the accuracy and real-time nature of the management system.