A Method For Resilience Assessment Of Train Operation System Of High-speed Railway

The 14 th Five Year Plan Period is a key period to accelerate the construction of China’s strength in transportation and promote the high-quality development of railway.It is necessary to always take the operation safety of high-speed railway as the lifeline of the railway industry.As the basic unit of transportation system,train operation system needs to deeply grasp the opportunities and challenges in the new period and continuously improve the safety management level,so as to ensure the safe and stable operation of high-speed railway.However,only relying on traditional risk management to deal with interference passively can not meet the development needs of the new period.As a research hotspot in the field of Safety Science,resilience theory provides a new thinking model for the safety management of train operation system of high-speed railway,which not only pays attention to the resistance and absorption capacity of the system interference,but also emphasizes the adaptability of the system itself.Therefore,the thesis applied the resilience theory to the safety management of the train operation system,and put forward a more scientific and efficient quantitative assessment method to study the resilience of train operation system,which provided theoretical support and practical guidance for improving the anti-risk capability.The contents of the thesis are as follows:(1)An index system suitable for the resilience assessment of train operation system was constructed.Firstly,taking a train operation system as the research object,the operation status of train operation system was analyzed from the perspective of the types,causes and time distribution of emergency events.Secondly,by clarifying the concept and feature dimension of the resilience of high-speed railway system,the key resilience indicators were preliminarily refined with the Pressure-State-Response(PSR)model.Finally,the weakness indicators were screened out by Delphi method and boundary value method,and the assessment index system of 24 second indicators in the seven dimensions was constructed.(2)A weighting method based on the combination of Tr FBWM-ANP and entropy weight method was proposed.Firstly,according to the interdependence between the indicators,the subjective weights were obtained by the improved network analysis method(ANP)based on Trapezoidal Fuzzy(Tr F)and Best-Worst Method(BWM).This method not only effectively expressed fuzzy judgment,but also reduced the number of paired comparisons.Secondly,while introducing the entropy weight method to revise the subjective weight,the game theory was used to seek a balanced combination of the two weights to obtain the best weight.(3)A comprehensive assessment model of R-TOPSIS based on prospect theory was proposed.The model includes three steps: Firstly,the initial fuzzy decision matrix was constructed by R-numbers,which could capture the error in assessment with fuzzy numbers.Secondly,considering the psychological behavior of loss aversion in decision-making experts,based on prospect theory,the thesis proposed to take the expectation value as the reference points and use the value function to correct the profit and loss value under different reference points.Finally,after having the weighted distances of the positive/negative ideal solutions by using the TOPSIS method,the resilience level of the assessment object was judged according to the ranking of relative closeness.Based on the above steps,taking a train operation system as an example,the assessment results are consistent with the actual situation,which proves the effectiveness of the model.The thesis constructs the index system and corresponding assessment model for the resilience assessment of train operation system,which not only expands the existing highspeed railway safety risk management,but also provides theoretical support for the resilience assessment of train operation system.