Research On High Resolution Transport Carbon Emission Inventory And Analysis Of Low Carbon Development Scenario In Beijing

Greenhouse gas（GHG）emissions from transportation sector have continued to grow over the past 20 years,and about 3/4 of these emissions came from road motor vehicles.This paper proposed a high temporal-spatial vehicle emission inventory establishment method based on road network information and the real-time average interval speed of road segments.The localized MOVES（Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator）model was used to simulate the CO₂,N₂O and CH₄ emission factors of different vehicles and a traffic speed-flow model was proposed to predict the hourly traffic flow of road network.The high temporal（1h×1h）and spatial（1km×1km）resolution GHG emission inventory of motor vehicles in Beijing in 2018 was developed from bottom to top.According to the emission inventory,the paper explored the total vehicle GHG emissions,vehicle contribution rate,the time variation law and spatial distribution characteristics of emissions in Beijing at the macro and micro level.Besides,based on the LEAP（Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system）model,the scenario analysis method was used to evaluate the evolution process of energy demand and GHG emissions from road transport in the historical stage（2000-2018）,and different scenarios were set to predict the development of GHG emissions in the future stage（2019-2030）in Beijing.The results showed that speed was the main factor affecting the motor vehicle emission factor,and the emission factors were higher at low speed and maintained at a low level in the normal operation stage（40-100 km/h）.It is an effective way to reduce the vehicle emission factors and GHG emissions by improving road traffic conditions,reducing road congestion,reducing the frequent start and stop of vehicles.The actual CO₂,N₂O and CH₄ emissions of motor vehicles in Beijing were 19,864,590,82.30and 511.90t,respectively in 2018.And the total GHG emission was 19,901,933t CO_2ecombined with GWP（global warming potential）.The contribution rates of gasoline passenger car,buses,diesel passenger car,light-duty truck,motorcycles,heavy-duty truck and minivans to total GHG emissions were 69.11%,8.87%,7.37%,5.00%,4.19%,3.77%and 1.68%,respectively.The average annual CO₂,N₂O and CH₄emission intensity of the road network were 1854.76,0.0086 and 0.044 t/km,respectively.The daily GHG emissions on weekday and weekend were 55206.30 and52817.64t CO_2e,respectively.The temporal variation law showed that the morning rush hour,the noon rush hour and the evening rush hour contributes 11.76%,11.84%and 12.92%of the daily emission,respectively.And the spatial distribution characteristic showd a circular decrease in vehicle GHG emissions from the urban core areas to the suburbs.The areas within the Fifth Ring Road（973km²）were only5.93%of the total area of the city（16,410km²）but contributed 41.53%of the total vehicle GHG emissions.The scenario analysis predicted that the vehicle stock in Beijing will increase from 6.084 million in 2018 to 7.3818 million in 2030.The total vehicle GHG emissions in Beijing has peaked in 2013(about 21693518t CO_2e).Total emissions from Optimal Development Scenario（ODS）,Technical Improvement Scenario（TIS）,Intensity Mitigation Scenario（IMS）and Structural Transformation Scenario（STS）would be 33.08%,21.34%,10.93%and 7.93%lower in 2030compared to Business as Usual Scenarios（BAU）.Among the single measures,the best way to reduce the GHG emissions was improve the fuel economy.The ODS scenario was the ideal development path,which incorporated a variety of measures.Tapping the emission reduction potential of motor vehicle is an effective way to promote Beijing to achieve the carbon peak target.