Risk Analysis Of Aviation Safety Considering UAV Operation

With the explosive growth of the drone market,drones have developed rapidly,but the management and control of drones have not kept pace with technological developments,and the safety hazards exposed by them have gradually increased.There have been multiple dangerous incidents of drones and passenger aircraft at home and abroad.Illegal flight of drones poses a threat to national public safety,flight safety,and even air defense security.How to effectively supervise and regulate drones and allow them to develop in an orderly manner is an issue that is of concern and urgent to be solved at home and abroad.In order to improve the safety level of drone operation,this article studies the aviation safety risk analysis of drones.The details are as follows:First,this paper introduces the theory of UAV systems,collision risk,and safety risk assessment,describes classic collision models and their advantages and disadvantages,and the safety risk assessment process.Then it discusses the influencing factors of safety risks of drones from the aspects of airspace characteristics,drone systems,human factor reliability,environment and management.Secondly,based on the collision model theory of the collision area and the airspace characteristics of the drone operation,a collision risk model of the drone with variable speed and variable height under isolated airspace conditions is constructed.The relationship between the drone flight distance and the collision probability under different flight conditions is obtained through an example analysis,and the collision risk level is divided according to the distance range to realize the evaluation of the drone collision risk.Finally,the risk of collision between UAV and transport aircraft is analyzed.Based on the improved Reich model and Event model,the relative velocity vector,random distribution,and probability mathematical methods are used to analyze the drone and transport aircraft only in airspace conditions.The risk of collision,combined with the main factors affecting the risk of collision,establish a collision risk prediction model(AHMEMCR model)for the drone and transport aircraft involving the five dimensions of airspace-human-machine-ring-tube,and conduct case analysis and evaluation.Predict the collision probability of different types of drones and transport aircraft in a terminal area.This model can monitor the number of drones and limit the drone models and speeds to ensure that the collision risk is within the required safety.Provide decision support for drone risk management and control within the target level range.