Complex Low Altitude Flight Risk Analysis And Airspace Safety Capacity Research

With the opening of China’s low-altitude airspace,the volume of general aviation operations in "surveillance airspace" has increased significantly,and the low-altitude airspace will carry short-haul transportation and mixed air/UAV operations.Therefore,the flight safety issue of mixed multi-flight aircraft will be a major challenge for future low-altitude airspace management and air control.Capacity management is an important element of airspace management,how to maximize the safety capacity of low altitude airspace while ensuring the flight safety of complex low altitude airspace has become a top priority.Firstly,this paper identifies the flight collision risk of complex low-altitude multi-aircraft through risk assessment methods such as Failure Mode and Effects Analysis,Surry Model and Preliminary Hazard Analysis.And further analyzed the flight collision risk coupling derivation process and the coupling action relationship of risk factors within the system under different flight scenarios to provide theoretical support for the construction of flight collision risk coupling model in the next chapter.Secondly,the mean mutual information theory model and the coupling degree model are combined to establish the complex low-altitude multi-aircraft flight collision risk coupling model and complex low-altitude multi-aircraft flight collision risk coupling model based on the mean mutual information theory.And based on the two models,a complex low-altitude multi-aircraft flight collision risk coupling measurement model is constructed for calculating the total value of risk coupling to characterize the coupling between risk factors causing disaster susceptibility and the severity of accident consequences.Then,to address the problem of unclear safety capacity of complex low-altitude airspace,the maximum number of aircraft that can guarantee the safety space for flight activities in the low-altitude fixed airspace is used to determine the target,and based on the aforementioned flight collision risk coupling model,a safety capacity model of complex low-altitude airspace based on risk level criteria is constructed to provide theoretical basis for flight safety level assessment and decision planning in low-altitude airspace.Finally,the established coupled model of complex low-altitude multi-aircraft flight collision risk and complex low-altitude airspace safety capacity model are applied to the airspace of Anyang Airshow to find out the safety capacity value of the flight area.And based on the key nodes identified by the single-factor sensitivity analysis that have a large impact on the total value of risk coupling,recommendations are given to guarantee the flight safety of aircraft and maximize the safety capacity of low-altitude airspace.