Study On Traffic Conflict Prediction And Safety Evaluation In Highway Convergence Zone

Governments in many developing countries face the negative socio-economic consequences of highway traffic accidents and deaths.Therefore,in the course of highway development in China,more accurate evaluation of regional programs to reduce road deaths has been a concern of many safety professionals.In the confluence area of expressway,the frequent speed change and lane change of vehicles are the main characteristics of the confluence area different from the normal section,and at the same time,it is also the primary factor leading to the traffic conflict in the confluence area.Limited by technical conditions and conscious cognition,there is a lack of complete and detailed study on the causes of accidents in confluence areas.In view of this,this paper studies the traffic conflict and safety evaluation in expressway confluence area in theory and practice,which provides some theoretical help and practical basis for the safety construction of expressway confluence area in China.Firstly,the relationship and difference between traffic conflict and traffic accident are analyzed,and the mechanism and characteristics of traffic conflict in confluence area are analyzed.Secondly,the criterion and method of judging the severity of traffic conflict in confluence area are put forward.Thirdly,it is divided into two-way eight-lane and two-way four-lane according to the lane condition of the selected expressway confluence area,and the traffic conflict prediction model is established by data analysis.Then,according to the above model,the traffic safety evaluation index of expressway confluence area is discussed,and the reason why the confluence area becomes the frequent area of highway accident is expounded;Finally,combined with the safety index,this paper puts forward personal opinions on the early warning and control of traffic safety in the confluence area of expressway under overload,rain and snow,and fog weather,in order to improve the safety of the confluence area of expressway.The results show that the actual data of different lane positions in the confluence area of expressway and the conflict of measurement and simulation are compared to evaluate the impact of different lane positions on safety in the confluence area.By introducing the traffic conflict model of highway confluence area,especially considering the potential variables and conflicts related to the traffic conflict in highway confluence area.The severity of traffic conflict can be evaluated by accurate traffic conflict dynamic variables.Taking the traffic conflict prediction model as the core,this paper puts forward the traffic safety prevention measures in the expressway confluence area,and puts forward effective measures to improve the safety grade of the expressway confluence area in view of three situations: overloading and overloading,rain and snow days and heavy fog days.