Study On The Prediction Of City’s Carbon Emission Peak Based On LEAP Model

Coping with climate change is a global issue.In the context of China’s goal of "carbon peak" and "carbon neutral",it is of great significance to carry out research related to coping with climate change and carbon emissions.Due to the unbalanced development in China and the different levels of economic development among different regions and provinces and cities,important provinces and cities in China must reach the peak as soon as possible before the carbon peak goal is achieved in China.The research direction of this study is the prediction of carbon emissions at the city level,and the research object is A domestic megacity(referred to as "A City").The accounting method is based on the "Provincial Action Plan for Peaking Carbon Dioxide Emission",and the LEAP model is selected as the calculation tool.Based on the baseline scenario(BS)and peak scenario(ER),the carbon emission of the city from 2021 to 2030 was predicted,the carbon emission law of the city was analyzed and the path of carbon emission reaching the peak was explored.The results show that in all scenarios,energy consumption is on the rise.Due to the implementation of a series of energy-saving and emission reduction measures in the peak scenario,energy consumption is generally lower than that in the base scenario,and carbon emissions peak in 2025.In the forecast analysis of energy consumption and carbon emissions by subsectors,it is found that the industrial sector accounts for the highest proportion of energy consumption and carbon emissions in both scenarios.In order to achieve the urban carbon peak goal,we should focus on energy conservation and emission reduction in the industrial sector.In the forecast analysis of energy consumption and carbon emissions by species,it is found that the proportion of coal consumption is the highest in both scenarios,and coal consumption contributes most of the carbon emissions.In the peak scenario,the carbon emissions generated by coal consumption will still remain at a high level of 45.5% of the total emissions in 2030.According to the analysis of the city’s emission reduction potential in the long term(the 15 th Five-Year Plan period),the industrial sector is the sector with the highest contribution to emission reduction,and coal is the energy type with the highest contribution from 2026 to 2028,while coal is the energy type with the highest consumption in the industrial sector.The emission reduction potential of electricity consumption will be highlighted after the emission reduction potential of coal consumption is released,and the emission reduction of electricity is mainly reflected in the green optimization of power structure and the development of new energy technology.The LEAP model and the energy consumption elastic coefficient model have the same rule of energy consumption curve and carbon emission curve.Under the same scenario,whether it is energy consumption or carbon emissions,the predicted results of the two models keep the same development law,but the results of the elastic coefficient method of energy consumption are generally larger.Energy consumption determines carbon emissions and carbon emissions are the result of energy consumption.Energy structure and energy consumption level affects the environment-social-economic the whole system,for fossil energy is limited and is also the source of pollutants and carbon emissions,only clean the sustainable energy can ensure the global economy and the green sustainable development of human society.