| Referring to the three-dimensional ecological footprint model constructed by Niccolucci,this paper updated the parameters such as equilibrium factors and yield factors on the basis of national hectare,and added the water resources land account to improve the traditional ecological footprint model.Then studying the temporal and spatial dynamic change of land natural capital used in Chongqing from 2004 to 2018 by using the model.Then by adding the ratio of stock capital and flow capital used and the occupancy index of flow capital used,this paper analyzed the utilization of stock and flow capital used in the past 15 years.This paper used the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression method to analyze the spatial and temporal change of the influence level of the 14 influence factors.Finally using the Partial Least Squares Regression method to predict the value of the three-dimensional ecological footprint,which shows that the change of the demand for land natural capital in Chongqing from 2019 to 2023,and putting forward the corresponding countermeasures.Through the above research,the following conclusions are drawn.(1)The demand for natural capital of land in Chongqing had decreased,and the ecological supply capacity had declined.Because the decline of ecological footprint was greater than that of ecological carrying capacity,the contradict between supply and demand of land natural capital had been eased.From 2004 to 2018,the multi-year average value of per capita two-dimensional ecological footprint in Chongqing was 0.8192 ha/cap,which showed a zigzag decline,with an overall decline of 9.42% in the past 15 years.The multi-year average value of ecological carrying capacity was 0.4969 ha/cap,with an overall decrease of 5.28%.The whole city was in the state of ecological deficit,and the multi-year average value was-0.3223 ha/cap,with a total decrease of 17.87%.(2)In terms of time scale,the multi-year average value of per capita three-dimensional ecological footprint of Chongqing from 2004 to 2018 was 0.7125 ha/cap,with an overall decrease of 3.46%.Except for the decrease of cultivated land(production)and forest land(absorption),other land types increased,with the significant growth of forest land(production),energy land and construction land,which increased by 839.86%,214.53% and 195.57%respectively.On the spatial scale,the proportion of the four areas of Chongqing in turn is: the western area of Chongqing > the nine main urban areas > the northeast of Chongqing > the southeast area of Chongqing.And the western area of Chongqing and the nine main urban areas increase by 8.4% and 34.69% respectively,while the northeast area of Chongqing and the southeast area of Chongqing decrease by 6.96% and 7% respectively.The total footprint size decreased by 15.19% in the past fifteen years,and it shows that the overall amount of flow capital and the ecological carrying capacity decreased.The total footprint depth decreased by4.37% in the past fifteen years,in which the consumption of stock capital of cultivated land and grassland increased by 5% and 9.03%,respectively,and the consumption of stock capital of forest land and water area decreased by 87.56% and 1.07% respectively.Because the construction land and water resources land were in the state of ecological reminded,the footprint depth of construction land and water resource land remained at 1.(3)Although the stock capital of land was utilized in Chongqing as a whole,it was not severe.The overall utilization ratio of land stock fluctuated repeatedly,with an average of0.6555 and an overall decrease of 13.29%.The utilization ratio of cultivated land reserve and discharge showed a zigzag upward trend,with an average value of 0.7905 and an overall increase of 12.32%.The utilization ratio of forest land storage flow increased first and then decreased,with an average value of 3.3664 and the largest decrease of 99.43% in total.The utilization ratio of grassland reserve and runoff increased zigzag from 2004 to 2009,and tended to be stable from 2009 to 2018,with an average value of 1.5325 and an overall increase of 16.08%.The utilization ratio of water storage and discharge decreased by 1.14%.The flow capital occupancy rate of construction land increased significantly,with an average value of4.43% and an overall increase of 213.11%.The capital occupancy rate of water resource land flow showed a wavy decreasing trend,with an average value of 42.52% and an overall decrease of 10.07%.(4)In the analysis of the main influencing factors of land natural capital,the first principal component is the level of urbanization development.The level of influence increased from low level to high level,and then gradually dropped to medium level largely.The high-level areas were mainly concentrated in the northeast area of Chongqing,and the low-level areas were gradually reduced to Wushan and Wuxi.The nine districts of the main city and the western area of Chongqing had the most significant changes.The second principal component is the level of agricultural development,and its main influence level rose from low level to high level,and then gradually dropped to medium level.The high-level areas were concentrated in the northeast area of Chongqing,and then reduced to Wushan,Wuxi and Fengjie.The areas of low-level were concentrated in the northeast area of Chongqing and the southeast area of Chongqing,and the change in the northeast area of Chongqing was the most significant.The third principal component is the level of economic aggregate and industrial development,and its main influence level was reduced from medium-high to medium-low level.The number of high-level areas increased significantly,from mainly concentrated in the western area of Chongqing to concentrated in the northeast area of Chongqing.The low-level areas changed from concentrated in the northeast area of Chongqing to concentrated in the western area of Chongqing and the nine main urban areas.The changes of the northeast of Chongqing and the western area of Chongqing were significant.The overall change of the southeast area of Chongqing was relatively small.(5)From 2019 to 2023,the ecological carrying capacity will increase and the ecological deficit will improve,increasing by 8.27% and decreasing by 78.76% compared with 2018 respectively.At the same time,it should also be noted that the overall ecological deficit of Chongqing is still in the state of ecological deficit.The three-dimensional ecological footprint value is still increasing in 2018-2023,especially in 2018-2019,with the maximum value in2019.Therefore,it is necessary to carry out scientific planning for land use,reduce the occupation of land stock capital,and maintain the overall trend of good.This paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions from six aspects: tapping potential of land,protecting cultivated land,developing ecological agriculture,coordinating urban and rural land use,improving energy consumption structure and strengthening land consolidation. |
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