Kunming City Ecological Security Evaluation Based On Improved Ecological Footprint Model Research

In order to understand the current state of ecological security of Kunming, and tobetter reflect the relations between the ecological environment and socio-economicdevelopment of Kunming, Water Footprint Accounts was incorporated intotraditional ecological footprint model in this paper. Through the improved footprintmodel, we calculated and analyzed of the per capita ecological deficit/surplus andecological security of Kunming between2000and2009. Finally we built theprediction, predicted and analyzed the ecological pressure index of Kunming in thefollowing six years, and analyzed the ecological safety’s warning situation ofKunming. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1) Water Footprint: From2003to2010, the water ecological deficit of Kunmingwas widening, extended from0.00962/to0.03832/. While thevariation was large, in the annual rainfall abundant year, the amount of water deficitreduced, in the continuous years of drought, the water deficit widened.(2) Six types of ecologically productive land footprint: From2000to2009, thesix types of land per capita ecological deficit of Kunming increased year by year,increased from2000’s0.28302/to2009’s1.28872/.(3) Ecological footprint summary: From2000to2009, the total per capitaecological deficit of Kunming was widening gradually, increased from2000’s0.2832/to2009’s1.35012/in this10years，absolute increase in the rateof1.06712/increased377%.(4) Ecological security index: The ecological pressure index showed a rapidupward trend, increased from2000’s1.2395to2010’s2.4068. Ecological safetycharacterization of state in2000-2003was less secure, from2004to2008was notsafe,2007and2009appeared extremely unsafe.(5) Ecological safety issues: Through the evaluation and analysis, there weresome ecological security problems in Kunming, such as a serious shortage of water resources per capita total, a serious shortage of urban per capita water supply, waterpollution of DianChi Lake and difficult to control; reduced area sown to grain, thedecline in per capita food production; irrational energy consumption structure, lack ofenergy reserve resources; damage to ecosystems, ecological disasters have occurred.(6) Forecasting and warning of ecological security: It was estimated that thesecurity level of the Kunming region in the next six years would be rising, in2010-2013rose to very unsafe level, moderate warning;2014-2015to extremelyunsafe levels, heavy warning.