Dynamic Simulation And Assessment Of The Coupling Relation Of Urbanization-energy-Environment System

While enjoying the convenience of life and social progress brought about by urbanization,negative effects such as ecological pressure and energy crisis have also entered people’s minds.There is an urgent need to change from high speed development to high quality development.To explore the harmonious interaction of urbanization with environment and energy,and provide a scientific reference for regional sustainable development,a system dynamics model was established around the urbanization,energy and environment subsystems using historical data from 2005 to 2018.The core area of the Huaihai Economic Zone was taken as the study area.The variable parameters were adjusted under different focuses to create models for inertial development,advancing urbanization development,environmental protection,energy conservation and sustainable development.A focused discussion was carried out considering indicators such as economic and spatial urbanization,environmental pressure and governance levels,energy consumption and utilization efficiency.The trends and quality levels of the relevant variables under the five scenario models were predicted,and the spatial distribution characteristics and differences between cities regarding GDP,industrial pollution intensity and total integrated energy consumption were compared.To evaluate the synergistic relationship between urbanization,energy and environment,a coupled coordination degree model was introduced.The results show that:(1)Different models exhibit different development traits according to their development focus.The model of advancing urbanization development has the best level of urbanization,but also has the most serious environmental pollution and relatively high energy consumption;the model of environmental protection has effectively alleviated environmental pressure,but its level of urbanization is relatively the lowest.(2)From 2005 to 2018,the urbanization-energy-environment system coupled relation mainly went through four stages: near-disorder,primary coordination,barely coordinated,and intermediate coordination.On the whole,the coupling coordination degree has achieved greater improvement,but the development level of the urbanization-energy-environment system varies greatly between cities and provinces.(3)Among the subsystems,the level of urbanization is of high quality,achieving upgrades at the levels of rapid economic development,industrial restructuring,increased urban population and expansion of green coverage.However,the environmental subsystem has fluctuated,and the importance attached to it has increased significantly in recent years.The development of the energy subsystem has remained at a low level,with more room for development in terms of enhancing energy use and reducing energy waste.(4)At this stage,the environmental protection model has the best coupling coordination,and the coupling coordination performance of the promotion of urbanization development model is the worst;considering the coordination performance and long-term development,the sustainable development model is the most suitable scenario model for the core area.