Study On The Elasticity Of Economic Carrying Capacity Of Water Environment In Heilongjiang Province

In recent years,with the rapid economic development of Heilongjiang Province,the water environment has been seriously polluted.As an environmental element,water resources have become more and more restrictive to sustainable development strategies.Due to the uneven distribution of water resources in Heilongjiang Province in time and space,the coordinated development of water environment capacity and industrial layout is of great significance to regional planning and economic development.This study is based on the economic development and utilization of water environment capacity in Heilongjiang Province.And through the analysis of the elasticity of the economic carrying capacity of the three major industries in Heilongjiang Province,this paper deeply explores the utilization potential of water environment capacity.And by constructing a water environment economic carrying capacity model,this paper calculates the comprehensive score to analyze it,and finally proposes an economic structure optimization plan.Firstly,based on the water environment capacity of Heilongjiang Province,this paper analies the elasticity of the economic carrying capacity of the three major industries in Heilongjiang Province.The result shows that livestock pollution has become the main non-point source pollution in Heilongjiang Province.Large-scale farming creates less pollution than free-ranging.Through the calculation of the pollution load of pig breeding in Heilongjiang Province in 2017,it is found that if large-scale farming is achieved 100%,COD emissions will relatively reduce by 10.70%,and economic benefits will increase by5.31%;Under the full utilization of the changes in water environment capacity brought by annual runoff,the output value of pigs in the key agricultural unit of Harbin will increase by about 30%;If increasing the straw utilization rate from 81.9% to 90%,the COD emissions will reduce by 44.76%,and the output value of crops will increase by44.75%;Then this paper makes a detail study of Jiamusi,Harbin,and Heihe,the main crop planting areas.Through calculating the economic carrying capacity of planting based on the increased water environment capacity due to changes of monthly runoff,this paper found that the output value of crops in the controed unit will increase by about 30%;After realizing the reduction of wastewater from heavy and chemical industries and considering the increased water environment capacity due to changes of monthly runoff,it is found that the increased water environment capacity will achieve an increase of 106.138 billion yuan in industrial output value(an increase of 30.16%);Calculating the economic carrying capacity of the tertiary industry based on the increased water environment capacity due to changes of monthly runoff,it is found that the output value of the tertiary industry can increase by 30%.Then this paper makes a further detailed research on Suihua City,it is found that the output value of the tertiary industry can increase by 13.98%;After optimizing the industrial structure ratio to 20:30:50,COD emissions will reduce by70094.09 tons,ammonia nitrogen emissions will reduce by 240.05 tons,and the regional GDP can increase by 3.5 billion yuan.Then an evaluation system for the water environment economic carrying capacity was constructed with the agricultural system,industrial system,and living system as the subsystems.14 selected evaluation indicators were weighted by the coefficient of variation method,and the comprehensive score of the economic carrying capacity of the water environment was finally calculated.The analysis results show that the score value of water environment economic carrying capacity from 2015 to 2019 shows a gradual upward trend.The agricultural system has a greater influence on the economic carrying capacity of water resources in Heilongjiang Province,followed by living systems and industrial systems.Through the regression simulation of the relationship between the economic growth and the discharge of industrial wastewater and domestic sewage in Heilongjiang Province by SPSS software,it is found that the discharge of industrial wastewater and domestic sewage will continue to decrease with the growth of per capita GDP in the next few years.Then the water environment capacity shortage in Heilongjiang Province was calculated,and it is found that the COD capacity shortage index was low in the northwest and southeast regions,while the COD capacity shortage index in the southwest was high,and the environmental pressure of ammonia nitrogen was generally lighter than COD.Then,based on the calculation and analysis results,an optimization plan for economic structure and productivity layout is proposed to realize the value of water environment capacity and create greater economic benefits.