| Objective:The purpose of this study was to explore the effects of meteorological factors and air pollutants on cardiovascular mortality,and to provide reference for epidemiological research and preventive policy formulation of cardiovascular disease mortality in Shenzhen.Methods:We collected daily cardiovascular disease death data,weather conditions,and air pollutant concentrations in Shenzhen from 2013 to 2017.Distributed lag no-linear models were employed to analyze the effects of meteorological factors and air pollutants on cardiovascular mortality.First,univariate analysis was carried out,and then other environmental factors with small correlation were introduced for multivariate analysis.We further examined the effects of meteorological factors and air pollutants on cardiovascular mortality by age and gender.Results:（1）The number of cardiovascular diseases deaths in Shenzhen from 2013to 2017 showed a fluctuating trend.The total number of cardiovascular deaths was23,030.The daily average number of deaths was 12.63.The deaths of male were more than that of female,the deaths of the elderly were more,and the deaths in cold season were more than that in warm season.（2）From 2013 to 2017,meteorological factors and air pollutants changed periodically in Shenzhen.The daily average temperature was 23.45℃.The daily average relative humidity was 75.20%.And the daily average concentrations of SO2,NO2,PM2.5 and PM10 were 9.51μg/m3、39.70μg/m3、32.03μg/m3、50.80μg/m3.（3）V-shaped curves have been found of temperature to cardiovascular mortality,both low temperature and high temperature increased the risk of cardiovascular mortality.The cumulative risk effect of extremely low temperature peaked at lag7 day（RR=1.395,95%CI:1.220～1.595）,and the cumulative risk effect of extremely high temperature peaked lag6 day（RR=1.233,95%CI:1.099～1.383）.Both had stronger impact on women and the elderly.（4）The extreme low relative humidity showed a cumulative risk effect on cardiovascular mortality,which peaked at lag7 day（RR=1.152,95%CI:1.044～1.272）,the male and the elderly were more sensitive.The extreme high relative humidity showed a cumulative protective effect,which peaked at lag2 day（RR=0.938,95%CI:0.882～0.998）,the women and the elderly were more sensitive.（5）The effect of SO2 on cardiovascular mortality was inverted N-shaped.Exposure to extremely low SO2 had a cumulative protective effect,which peaked at lag1 day（RR=0.940,95%CI:0.894～0.988）and was significant in women and the elderly.Exposure to extremely high SO2 had a cumulative risk effect,which peaked at lag7 day（RR=1.175,95%CI:1.052～1.313）and was statistically significant in men and the elderly.（6）Extreme high NO2 exposure increased the risk of cardiovascular mortality,which peaked at lag7 day（RR=1.236,95%CI:1.088～1.403）,and the effect was stronger in men and the elderly.（7）Extreme high PM2.5 showed a cumulative risk effect on cardiovascular mortality,peaking at lag7 day（RR=1.141,95%CI:1.028～1.267）,which was significant for men and the elderly.（8）Extreme high PM10 increased the risk of cardiovascular mortality,and the cumulative effect peaked at lag7 day（RR=1.190,95%CI:1.075～1.316）.The effect was stronger in men and the elderly.（9）After adjusting for the effects of other environmental factors,the risk effects of temperature on CVD mortality remained robust,the effects of relative humidity and extremely low SO2 became insignificant,and the risk effects of extremely high NO2 and PM10 decreased slightly but remained significant.Conclusions:From 2013 to 2017,meteorological factors and air pollutants changed periodically in Shenzhen.Ambient temperature,relative humidity,SO2,NO2,PM2.5 and PM10 all showed non-linear lag effects on CVD mortality,and the effects at extremely low and extremely high levels show differences in gender and age.The results of this study have important public health significance for improving air quality,controlling air pollution and formulating prevention and control strategies of CVD. |
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