| Land use change is the main driving force for carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems,and increasing carbon sinks is the main way to realize low-carbon territorial space development.Carbon storage and carbon sequestration are ideal support tools for influencing decisions about ecosystem services.As carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals are incorporated into the overall layout of ecological civilization construction,carbon emissions remain high,and problems such as insufficient carbon sink capacity have become increasingly prominent.To this end,the relationship between the spatial and temporal changes of regional land use and the carbon storage of the ecosystem is studied to enhance the carbon sink potential of the regional ecosystem,improve the carbon storage capacity of the terrestrial ecosystem,ease the pressure of emission reduction,and promote the sustainable development of the region.This paper takes Junan County,Linyi City as the research area.First,based on the land use data in 2010,2015 and 2020,the Markov-FLUS model is used to predict the land use evolution law of Junan County in 2030.Secondly,on this basis,based on the InVEST model,the carbon storage changes in 2010,2015,2020 and 2030 were obtained,and the carbon sequestration capacity of Junan County in different periods was further obtained.The relationship between carbon capacity.Finally,the grey linear programming model in the LINGO software is used to construct the target benefit function,and 2030 is taken as the target year for optimization,striving to obtain the best land use structure layout from the perspective of increasing carbon storage and enhancing the carbon sink capacity of natural resource ecosystems.The main findings are as follows:1.Analysis of Land Use Type Changes in Junan County:From the perspective of the land use change range,the change area in 2015-2020 is slightly lower than that in 2010-2015.Construction land increased the most among all categories,and the area of cultivated land,garden land,forest land and water area decreased by different degrees.Among them,the cultivated land has the largest decrease,and the water area has the smallest change.From 2010to 2020,the comprehensive land use index of Junan County increased steadily,and the change trend of the area of each category was relatively stable.The area of forest and water area is reduced,and it mainly flows to cultivated land and construction land.In the past ten years,Junan County has achieved certain results in returning farmland to forests and ecological protection.However,except for construction land and other land,the area of other land types has decreased to varying degrees.It is necessary to strengthen land use planning and management,pay attention to cultivated land protection,and solve the problem.The contradiction between economic development and ecological protection in land use.2.Simulation of future land use change in Junan County:Combined with the actual situation of the study area and based on the relevant principles of driving factors,10 driving factors were selected from three aspects:location,natural and human-driven,and SPSS software was used to carry out binary Logistic regression analysis on the driving factors.The ROC test values were all greater than 0.74.It shows that the ten driving factors selected in this paper can better explain the characteristics of land use change in Junan County.The numerical and spatial Kappa accuracy of the simulation results in 2020 and the actual land use types in Junan County were verified,and the results were 91.2%and 0.88,respectively,indicating that the accuracy of the simulation results was ideal,and the Markov-FLUS model can be used to simulate the land use of Junan County in 2030.Use spatial patterns.Based on the land use data of Junan County in 2020,the Markov-FLUS model was used to obtain the simulation results of land use in Junan County in 2030.3.Analysis of land use change and carbon sequestration capacity in Junan County:The land use type map of Junan County from 2010 to 2030 and the revised carbon density value were substituted into InVEST model.The total carbon storage of Junan County in 2010,2015,2020 and 2030 are 574.2×10~5Mg C,570.4×10~5Mg C,568.2×10~5Mg C and 554.8×10~5Mg C respectively.The carbon sequestration amount in 2010-2020 is-6×10~5Mg C;the predicted carbon sequestration amount in Junan County in 2020-2030 is-13.4×10~5Mg C.The results showed that the carbon storage in Junan County showed a trend of decreasing year by year;according to regional statistics,it was found that cultivated land had the largest carbon storage among all land types,followed by forest land and construction land,and water area carbon storage was the least;except for construction land and other land,other land The carbon storage of all types decreased year by year;the year-on-year decrease of carbon storage in 2010-2020and 2020-2030 was mainly due to the increase in the area of construction land and other land,and the decrease in the area of cultivated land,garden land,forest land and water area.The carbon sequestration capacity of construction land and facility land is lower than that of non-construction land;it is expected that only the carbon sequestration capacity of construction land and other land will increase from 2020 to 2030,while the carbon sequestration capacity of cultivated land and forest land will drop significantly.According to regional statistics,from2010 to 2030,the areas with the most carbon storage distribution are located in Fangqian Town,Laopo Town,and Shijilu Street,and the least areas are located in Daokou Town and Lingquan Town;most of the towns in Junan County are carbon balance areas.;Carbon sources are concentrated in the fast-growing Pingshang Town and Shijilu Street,and are less distributed in Yanbin Town and Daokou Town;the area of the carbon balance area in Junan County will decrease from 2020 to 2030,and the area of the carbon sink area in each town will be reduced.There is also an increase,but it is mainly concentrated in key towns and general towns,and the carbon source and carbon sink areas are alternately distributed.4.Optimization of land use in Junan County:After the optimization of the grey linear model,the increase in the area of construction land and other land slowed down,and the decrease in the area of other land types such as cultivated land,garden land,and forest land slowed down,and the structure of land use types was reasonably allocated.Compared with the forecast,the forest land and garden land have expanded significantly to the northeast and southeast of Junan,and the forest land and garden land are scattered in the central and western regions;the expansion of construction land and other land has been reasonably restrained,especially in the central urban area and the economic development of the port.area is particularly notable.The total carbon storage has been optimized.The optimized carbon storage is 567.70×10~5Mg C,an increase of 12.87×10~5Mg C compared with the predicted total carbon storage,which is close to the carbon storage value in 2020,and the optimization effect is ideal.The areas with increased carbon storage are concentrated in Shijilu Street,Pingshang Town,eastern Fangqian Town,Tuanlin Town,etc.,which are correlated with the results of land use optimization and adjustment.The results show that in order to improve the carbon sequestration and carbon sink capacity of the ecosystem in Junan County,strengthen the ecological restoration of the land space,rationally plan the spatial layout of the ecosystem,strengthen the ecological restoration,and effectively protect the cultivated land,the area of construction land and other land should be adjusted appropriately.It is very important,and the research results can provide a reference for the future policy formulation of Junan County. |
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