Evaluation And Prediction Of Ecological Security Of Urban Agglomeration Around Poyang Lake Based On Emergy-Ecological Footprint Model

Economic development and environmental pollution go hand in hand,putting pressure on regional ecological security.As the largest freshwater lake in China,Poyang Lake is the region with the highest level of economic and urbanization development in Jiangxi Province with the carrying area of the lake’s water body-the urban agglomeration around Poyang Lake.As an important part of the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River,the Ecological security has an important impact on the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin.Due to the large population,dense cities and towns,relatively backward production methods,and prominent structural contradictions,the region is facing enormous ecological pressure along with the vigorous construction of urban agglomerations and economic circles.How to deal with the challenges of green development and sustainable development is imminent.Based on the ecological security theory,ecological footprint model theory and emergy theory,this paper integrates the relevant research results of domestic and foreign scholars,introduces regional emergy density,and incorporates waste data into the index calculation.The emergy-ecological footprint model of the situation is used to evaluate and analyze the ecological security of local-level cities and regions from 2010 to 2019,and to predict the ecological security status from 2020 to 2025 through the GM（1,1）model to establish an ecological Security early warning mechanism,and then provide relevant recommendations.Through empirical analysis,the following conclusions are drawn:（1）From the perspective of the region as a whole,the per capita regional ecological carrying capacity of the urban agglomeration around Poyang Lake presents a downward trend.The ecological footprint of per capita emergy first rises and then falls,and its composition size is: arable land > fossil energy land > construction land > water > grassland > forest land.From its account,the per capita emergy ecological footprint of the biological resource production account first rises and then falls later.While the volatility of energy consumption accounts and pollutant accounts increased.From the perspective of prefecture-level cities,due to differences in population,area,and rainfall,the per capita emergy ecological footprint is not exactly the same as the per capita regional ecological carrying capacity.From its composition,cultivated land accounts for the largest proportion,while fossil energy land there is a difference in the proportion of construction land.（2）In terms of ecological deficit/surplus per capita emergy,except Fuzhou,other prefecture-level cities continue to experience ecological deficits.As far as the ecological pressure index is concerned,except for Pingxiang,the ecological pressure index of other prefecture-level cities has increased to varying degrees,and the ecological environment bears greater pressure.As far as the ecological diversity index is concerned,most prefecture-level cities show a steady growth trend,indicating that the stability of the ecosystem is increasing.As far as the ecological coordination index is concerned,the local-level cities are kept between 1.00 and 1.41,indicating that the ecological coordination is poor and needs to be improved urgently.As far as the ecological safety level is concerned,the area has changed from relatively safe to slightly unsafe,and the ecological safety level of most prefecture-level cities has also increased,and the ecological safety situation is not optimistic.（3）Based on the ecological security status predicted by the GM（1,1）model from 2020 to 2025,except for Xinyu and Pingxiang,the ecological deficits of other prefecture-level cities are increasing.The ecological pressure index of most prefecture-level cities is also further increasing,and more prefecture-level cities are in a state of ecological insecurity.According to the results of the early warning,Jingdezhen and Ji’an are no police officers,and Nanchang is a heavy police officer.Over time,Fuzhou has been upgraded from no police officers to light officers,Jiujiang has been upgraded from light police officers to medium police officers,and Shangrao and Yingtan have been upgraded from medium police officers to heavy police officers..As far as the region is concerned,the ecological security warning level has been raised from light police to medium police.To prevent problems before they occur,it is necessary to take strong protection measures for the future ecological environment security of the region to maintain its sustainable development.In view of the current ecological security status and early warning results of urban agglomerations around Poyang Lake,the following relevant policy recommendations are put forward:（1）Control the ecological footprint of emergy,and take multiple measures to ensure ecological security.Reduce the consumption of arable land,fossil energy land and construction land resources;encourage the use of clean energy,promote green transportation,and encourage green travel;introduce high-tech industries,reduce "three wastes" emissions,and classify waste.（2）Improve the regional ecological carrying capacity and promote the rational and effective use of resources.Promote rural land reclamation,adopt efficient farming modes such as rotating tillage according to local conditions,or adopt contracting and leasing to improve land utilization.Further focus on road network planning and infrastructure construction layout.（3）The government,enterprises and individuals work together to perform their respective duties and work together to do a good job in ecological and environmental protection.