| Objective:This study describes the distribution characteristics and drug resistance of tuberculosis in Jilin province from 2014 to 2019,constructs a time series model to predict the registration of tuberculosis in 2020,and analyzes the related factors of drug-resistant tuberculosis and multidrug-resistance tuberculosis,in order to understand the epidemic trend and characteristics of drug-resistant tuberculosis in Jilin province,and provide scientific basis for tuberculosis prevention and control departments and health departments in Jilin province to formulate corresponding strategies and measures.Method:Collect data of tuberculosis and drug-resistant tuberculosis patients in Jilin province from 2014 to 2019 from the special report system of tuberculosis.Demographic data come from the statistical yearbook of Jilin province.Microsoft Excel 2010 was used to sort out and describe the data.Using Python 3.8 to build SARIMA time series prediction model and unconditional Logistic regression model.Chi square test was used for comparison between groups.When P<0.05,the difference is statistically significant.Results:1、Epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis in Jilin province（1）General characteristics From 2014 to 2019,a total of 76883 TB patients were registered in Jilin Province,with an average annual registration rate of48.62/100000.（2）Demographic characteristics The cumulative number of registered TB patients was more male than female,and the gender ratio was 2.39:1.The average age was 47.61±17.19 years old,and the number of patients in the 30-59 age group was the most,accounting for 53.11%.The majority of patients were Han nationality,accounting for 95.37%.Among all occupations,the number of farmers was the most,accounting for 53.98%.Among the registered areas,Changchun had the most patients,accounting for 23.41%.The most registered residence types were patients of non-floating population,accounting for 95.64%.Newly treated patients accounted for94.63%.（3）Time characteristics In Jilin province,the highest TB registration rate was55.50/100000 in 2014,and the lowest was 41.62/100000 in 2019.The registration rate decreased year by year from 2014 to 2016,increased slightly in 2017 and 2018,and decreased to the lowest level in six years in 2019.（4）Regional characteristics Among the nine cities in Jilin province,the annual average registration rate of tuberculosis in Jilin was the highest,63.38/100000,and that in Changchun was the lowest,39.86/100000.The annual average registration rates of Jilin,Baicheng and Siping were higher than those of the whole province.2、Time series analysis of tuberculosis in Jilin provinceThrough the construction of SARIMA model based on the monthly registration data of tuberculosis in Jilin Province from 2014 to 2019,the optimal model is ARIMA（0,1,1）（2,1,2）12,the root mean square error is 209.23,and the average absolute percentage error is 21.72%.It is predicted that the number of registered tuberculosis in Jilin province in 2020 will be 12555,and the number of registered tuberculosis in March and June will be more.3、Epidemiological characteristics of drug resistant tuberculosis in Jilin Province（1）Drug resistance detection and composition of tuberculosis patients From2014 to 2019,15373 TB patients were detected for drug resistance in Jilin province,and the detection rate was 20.00%.The ratio of male to female was 2.88:1.The average age was（50.41±16.16）.The number of patients aged 30-59 was the largest.The Han nationality accounted for 94.30%.In all occupations,the most patients were farmers,accounting for 51.25%.Jilin had the most patients,accounting for 24.67%.Among the registered residence types,the number of non-floating patients was the most,accounting for 96.37%.Among the treatment categories,the number of newly treated patients was the most,accounting for 83.06%.（2）Analysis of drug resistance and influencing factors of tuberculosis in Jilin province From 2014 to 2019,there were 2933 drug-resistant TB patients in Jilin province,and the total drug-resistance rate was 19.08%.The drug-resistance rate of male patients was higher than that of female patients;The drug-resistance rate of patients aged 30-59 was the highest;The drug-resistance rate of unemployed patients was the highest in all occupations;Songyuan had the highest drug-resistance rate;The drug-resistance rate of retreated patients was the highest;The drug-resistance rate decreased year by year.The results of multivariate analysis showed that the risk of drug resistance was 1.350 times（95%CI:1.157-1.575）in patients aged 0-29 years old and 1.280 times（95%CI:1.156-1.419）in patients aged 30-59 years old.The risk of drug resistance in male patients was 1.154 times higher than that in female patients（95%CI:1.044-1.276）.The drug resistance risk of farmers was lower than that of other occupations（OR=0.760）.Jilin（OR=0.652）,Siping（OR=0.441）,Liaoyuan（OR=0.569）,Tonghua（OR=0.631）,Baishan（OR=0.356）and Yanbian prefecture（OR=0.510）were lower than Changchun,and the risk of drug resistance in Songyuan was 1.289 times higher than that in Changchun（95%CI:1.053-1.577）.The drug resistance risk of retreated patients was 3.388 times higher than that of untreated patients（95%CI:3.079-3.728）.（3）Analysis of multidrug-resistance and influencing factors of tuberculosis in Jilin province From 2014 to 2019,1093 MDR-TB patients were detected in Jilin province,and the total multidrug-resistance rate was 7.11%.There were significant differences in multidrug-resistance rate among different gender,age,nationality,occupation,region and treatment classification.The multidrug-resistance rate of male patients was higher than that of female patients;The multidrug-resistance rate of patients aged 0-29 was the highest;The rate of multidrug-resistance of Korean was the highest;The multidrug-resistance rate of unemployed patients was the highest among all occupations;Among the cities,Changchun had the highest multidrug-resistance rate;The multidrug-resistance rate of retreated patients was the highest;The multidrug-resistance rate decreased year by year.Multivariate analysis showed that the risk of multidrug resistance in patients aged 0-29 years was 1.845times higher than that in patients aged 60 years and above（95%CI:1.456-2.324）,and that in patients aged 30-59 years was 1.506 times higher than that in patients aged 60years and above（95%CI:1.280-1.773）;The risk of MDR in male patients was 1.178times higher than that in female patients（95%CI:1.010-1.374）;The risk of MDR in Korean patients was 2.133 times higher than that in Han patients（95%CI:1.473-3.089）;521),The risk of MDR in Jilin（OR=0.521）,Siping（OR=0.514）,Liaoyuan（OR=0.526）,Tonghua（OR=0.620）,Baishan（OR=0.427）and Yanbian（OR=0.344）was lower than that in Changchun;The risk of multidrug resistance in retreated patients was 3.486 times higher than that in untreated patients（95%CI:3.049-3.987）.Conclusions:1、From 2014 to 2019,the annual average registration rate of tuberculosis in Jilin province is lower than the national average level,and the annual average registration rate fluctuates.The annual average registration rate of Jilin is the highest,and the patients with tuberculosis are mainly male,middle-aged,Han nationality,farmers,non-floating population and newly treated patients.2、According to the prediction of tuberculosis registration in Jilin province in2020,the number of registered tuberculosis patients has no obvious downward trend compared with previous years,and the peak incidence is in March and June.3、From 2014 to 2019,the total drug resistance rate of tuberculosis in Jilin province was lower than the national level,and the drug resistance rate decreased year by year.The drug resistance rate in Songyuan was the highest.Male,middle-aged,registered in Songyuan and retreatment were the risk factors for drug resistance of tuberculosis patients.4、From 2014 to 2019,the total MDR rate of tuberculosis in Jilin province was higher than the national level,and the MDR rate decreased year by year.The MDR rate in Changchun was the highest.Male,young and middle-aged,Korean nationality and retreatment were the risk factors of MDR in tuberculosis patients. |
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