| Objectives To describe and analyze the epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis in Shijiazhuang from 2016 to 2020 and use the time series method to predict the incidence of tuberculosis in Shijiazhuang,so as to provide scientific basis for formulating more accurate and effective tuberculosis prevention strategies and measures.Methods The personal information,clinical information and drug-sensitive test information of patients with tuberculosis in Shijiazhuang during the period of January 1,2016-December31,2020 were collected and collated,and the descriptive epidemiological analysis was performed.The monthly incidence of tuberculosis in Shijiazhuang from January 2016 to December 2020 was used as the original data to establish an autoregressive integrated moving average（ARIMA）to predict the monthly incidence of tuberculosis in 2021.The predicting incidence by ARIMA was compared with the actual incidence in 2021 to evaluate the application value of time series analysis in tuberculosis epidemic prediction.Results 1.Fifteen thousand four hundred and sixty-two cases with tuberculosis were registered in Shijiazhuang during 2016-2020.The proportion of new patients（14,443 cases,93.41%）in the registration classification is the highest.The referral patients（10,603 cases,68.57%）were the highest among the source of patients with tuberculosis.There were 14443new cases with tuberculosis and 36 death cases reported during 2016-2020,respectively.The incidence rate and average mortality rate were 26.32/100,000 and0.06/100,000,repectively 2.In Shijiazhuang,the number of tuberculosis cases（4,279 cases,29.63%）reported mainly in autumn was,highest.The highest annual average incidence rate reported in Shijiazhuang was in Qiaoxi district（32.37/100,000）,the highest mortality rate was in Zhengding county（0.24/100,000）and the highest case fatality rate was in Zhengding county（1.54%）.There were 9,913 cases（64.11%）of men and 5,549 cases（35.89%）of women with tuberculosis in Shijiazhuang,with a male to female sex ratio of 1.79.The proportion of 20-30 years group was the highest with 3246 cases（20.99%）,the ethnic group was mainly Han,with 15 415 cases（99.70%）.The occupation of tuberculosis patients was mainly farmers and students,with 8701 cases（56.27%）and 2264 cases（14.64%）,repectively.Among the key populations monitored,the largest number of people had diabetes mellitus,with 185 cases（70.61%）.3.The optimal model established by time series analysis to forecast the monthly incidence of tuberculosis in Shijiazhuang was SARIMA（1,1,0）（1,0,0）[12]with Akaike information criterion（AIC）and Bayesian information criterion（BIC）of 641.85 and647.85,respectively.The residual series of the model were white noise series（P>0.05）,and the regression coefficients of the model were significantly non-zero（P<0.1）.The overall back substitution fitting result was basically consistent with the actual tuberculosis incidence,with RMSE=52.08,MAE=37.56 and MAPE=20.15%,indicating that the model was well constructed and scientifically valid.The fitted SARIMA model was then validated by comparing the predicted monthly tuberculosis incidence with the actual monthly tuberculosis incidence for 2021.With the exception of January and February,the actual number of tuberculosis cases in other months fell within the 95%confidence interval of the predicted value.The actual values in the first quarter were relatively different from the predicted values,and the relative errors between the predicted and actual values in the other three quarters ranged from 1.68%to 56.76%.The actual number of people in February 2021was an outlier,and after removing the outlier,RMSE=35.68,MAE=1.39 and MAPE=44.05%,indicating that the model had a good predictive performance for the monthly incidence of tuberculosis in Shijiazhuang.Conclusions The incidence and mortality rates of tuberculosis in Shijiazhuang from 2016to 2020 shows a trend of first increasing and then decreasing.The highest number of tuberculosis cases are reported in autumn.The incidence rate of tuberculosis is the highest in Qiaoxi district,and the mortality and death rate of tuberculosis in Zhengding county are the highest.in Shijiazhuang.More men than women suffer from tuberculosis,the ethnicity is mainly Han,and young adults have the highest proportion of all age groups.The occupational distribution is mainly farmers and students,The monitoring of key populations is mainly for people with diabetes.The SARIMA model established by the time-series method is scientifically valid and has good predictive performance on forecasting the monthly incidence of tuberculosis in Shijiazhuang,and is suitable for short-term prediction of the number of tuberculosis.Figure16;Table14;Reference 153... |
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