| Objective To explore the association between arterial stiffness and diabetes.Methods In this prospective cohort,we included 26360 participants who participat ed in at least one survey in 2010-2011,2012-2013,or 2014-2015,and consented to participate in brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity(baPWV)examination.We exclud ed individuals who did not participated follow-up surveys,those with history of dia betes,cardiovascular disease,or chronic kidney disease and incomplete information.Included were 14159 participants.Normal arterial stiffness was defined as baPWV<1400cm/s;the borderline was 1400≤baPWV<1800cm/s;and the elevated was baPW V≥1800cm/s.Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to estimate hazard ratios(HRs)and 95% confidence intervals(CIs)of incident diabetes.FBG and baPWV were repeatedly measured at baseline and follow-ups.Path analysis was used to analyze the temporal causal relationship between baPWV and FBG,among 8956 participants with repeated assessment of baPWV and FBG twice in 2010-2017.Results The study population had a mean age of 48.3±12.0 years at the baseline,and 65.2% were men.During a mean 3.72 years of follow-up,we documented 979 new diabetes.The cumulative incidence of diabetes was 6.91%.Compared to the n ormal group,HR(95%CI)for incident diabetes was 1.59(95%CI: 1.34-1.88)for th e borderline group,and 2.11(95%CI: 1.71-2.61)for the elevated group,after adjust ing for confounders.Mean follow-up time was 4.53 years in the path analysis.In t he fully-adjusted model,the standardized correlation coefficient of baseline baPWV and follow-up FBG(β2)was 0.09(95%CI: 0.05-0.10,P=0.01),whereas the standard ized correlation coefficient of baseline FBG and follow-up baPWV(β1)was 0.00(95%CI:-0.02-0.02;P=0.50),which was significantly less than β2(P<0.01).Conclusions Arterial stiffness,as measured by baPWV,was associated with risk of developing diabetes.Arterial stiffness appeared to precede the increase in FBG.Figure 5;Table 11;Reference 99... |