A Study Of The Impact Of Demographic Changes On Suburban Housing Prices

Housing is closely related to the livelihood of the public.As of the implementation of housing commercialization and monetization in China in 1998,the housing price in some regions rose too quickly and was overheated,the regional housing price was not even as well,some fast-growing cities have seen excessively fast and overheated development of real estate industry.Now,the housing price in first-tier cities of China is a matter of concern of the whole nation.Therefore,the stability of housing price not only is vital to people's livelihood,but also plays an important role in general development of the society.At the end of 2016,the Central Economic Working Conference for the first time brought up the opinion that “houses are for living in,not for investment”.With respect to current situations of different cities,through executing specific policies for different cities and guiding reasonably,as an economic commodity,the house will definitely return to the consideration of supply and demand,this is of great significance to the forming of housing price.The housing supply is mainly determined by government and real estate developers,while the demand is mainly from population.Under the influence of economic situations,national policies,urban planning,industrial distribution and people's idea,in recent years,the demographic structure of China has changed dramatically.During the continuous change of demographic structure,the population of first-tier cities rises continuously,receives a large number of immigrants and shows a high degree of aging;while,the population of second and third-tier cities outflows constantly.How to solve the unbalanced population distribution among cities and different urban regions effectively has become a new topic of Chinese urban development.Along with economic development of China,the urbanization of population and constantly changing industrial structure of employment also have promoted the change of urban-rural demographic structure,and further affected the industrial distribution of cities.Such change of demographic structure is now silently affecting people's expectation on and demand for residence,thus generating significant influence on housing price.With Shanghai City and Shanghai suburbs as the research object,this paper made data analysis based on the panel data of 2008-2017 at Zone 9 of Shanghai suburbs to identify the internal connection between demographic structure change and housing price change at the level of micro district and county.During the research process,by using literature induction,this paper summarized and analyzed the influencing factors of housing price,learned about the relation between demographic structure change and housing price change of Shanghai suburbs involved in previous researches,established the theoretical basis for this research,analyzed the internal connection between demographic structure change and housing price of Shanghai suburbs,selected model for quantitative analysis,and then processed the collected data,established the model of panel data,utilized the correlation analysis and fixed effect analysis,performed quantitative analysis and finally reached the conclusion.According to the conclusion of data analysis,first,as an embodiment of the population size and aggregation degree,the population density of Shanghai suburbs has positive influence on housing price,where the density is high,the regional housing price is high;second,the migrant population inflow of Shanghai suburbs has improved the housing demand,the migrant population has significant positive influence on housing price,where the growth rate of migrant population is high,the housing price rises quickly;third,as to the influence of regional industrial structure change on housing price of suburbs,the proportion of third industry has substantial positive influence on housing price,while the second industry has relatively subtle influence;fourth,the regional industrial structure affects economic development of the region;the region with high proportion of third industry has quicker economic development and the employment structure of population of the region will change accordingly,as a result,migrant population of the region is increased and the population density rises,thus generating positive influence on housing price;fifth,the infrastructure construction brings convenience and benefits to regional development and has positive influence on housing price.