Human Capital And Economic Growth In The Context Of Population Aging

Since the reform and opening up,China's economy has gained strong momentum and made great achievements.By 2019,China has become the world's second largest economy.Since the financial crisis in 2008,China has experienced a shift in the gears of economic growth from a high speed to a medium high speed.To promote stable and high-quality economic growth has become a new goal of economic growth.A certain amount of human capital accumulation is the foundation of high-quality economic development.The proportion of the population over 65 in China has risen from 8.87 percent in2010 to 11.94 percent in 2018,and according to the United Nations,the proportion will reach 30 percent by 2050.The aging of population has been an objective problem faced by China's economic growth.It is also urgent to analyze the relationship between aging and economic growth and to do a good job in dealing with aging.Population aging affects the population structure,and human capital is carried by people.Both belong to the category of population,and with the deepening of population aging,the population quantity dividend is more and more inclined to transfer to the population quality.Therefore,this paper decides to study population aging,human capital and economic growth within the same framework.First to establish the mathematical model,the population aging factors into MRW growth theory model,the analysis of an aging population,the influence of human capital on economic growth,then uses the 1999-2018 provincial panel data to carry on the empirical analysis,considering the population aging and have the features of regional heterogeneity of human capital,and the eastern,central and western three areas of regression simulation of the main conclusions are as follows:Based on the empirical evidence at the national level,the human capital stock coefficient is 0.681,that is,for every 1% increase in the human capital stock,the economic growth is 0.681%,and the human capital stock plays a promoting role in the economic growth.The degree coefficient of aging is-0.139,indicating that every1% increase in the dependency ratio of the elderly will decrease the economic growth by 0.139%,and the aging population will play a restraining role in the economic growth.The interaction between the two is significantly positive,which indicates that the promotion of population aging plays a positive role in promoting economic growth by human capital,and human capital weakens the hindering effect of population aging itself on economic growth.and the sensitivity of economic growth to human capital stock is much higher than that of population aging,the positive promotion effect of human capital stock on economic growth is greater than the inhibition effect of population aging on economy.From the perspective of the three regions,human capital stock and the degree of aging exist in different regions.The human capital stock coefficients in the eastern region,the central region and the western region are 1.53,0.82 and 0.28.The human capital stock coefficients in the eastern region,the central region and the western region are all positive.However,the human capital stock coefficients in the eastern region and the central region are greater than those at the national level,and the eastern region is the highest.This also reflects the aggregation effect of the eastern talent highland.The coefficient of human capital in western China is lower than that at the national level,and its effect on economic growth is relatively small.The dependency ratio of the elderly in eastern and western regions also has regional heterogeneity,with coefficients of0.311 and-0.323 respectively.Aging in eastern regions will promote economic growth,while the economic effect is opposite in western regions.Based on the conclusions of this paper,the following suggestions are put forward :(1)to strengthen the accumulation of human capital,improve the quality of the population,and lay a good foundation for economic transformation and sustainable economic development.(2)Pay attention to prevent the brain drain and improve the system of talent introduction.(3)We will create a targeted and better consumer market for the elderly,stimulate their consumption drive,and promote the improvement and upgrading of the consumption structure.(4)Pay attention to the employment training of the elderly to improve the overall labor efficiency.(5)Improve the retirement system and encourage the young and old to find jobs again.(6)We will further open up the family planning policy and improve policies to support it.