Research On State Energy-related Carbon Emissions And Influencing Factors In India

As the world’s second largest emerging economy and second most populous country,India is undergoing rapid industrialization and urbanization.Its continuous advancement of industrialization and urbanization has led to a large use of fossil energy,which has caused serious climate change problems consequently.Accounting for 21.5%of the global increase in carbon emissions over the same period,the carbon emissions increased from 1750.6 million tons in 2010 to 2621.3 million tons in 2018.Due to its vast territory and high regional heterogeneity in terms of development stage,population structure and industrial structure of the country,there are obvious differences in regional emission patterns and driving factors.Identifying the regional heterogeneity of emissions in India is a prerequisite for formulating accurate and equitable emission reduction strategies.In view of this,this paper discusses the key factors and emission reduction strategies affecting regional carbon emissions in India from the perspectives of production,consumption.The research is divided into three stages.First and foremost,the production-based carbon emissions at the state level in India are accounted,and the differences in industrial structure and emission intensity between regions are analyzed.Furthermore,with the method of index decomposition analysis the driving factors of production-based emissions are analyzed and explained from 2012 to 2015.In the second stage,based on the Flegg location quotient model and gravity model,a multi-regional input-output table of 50 industrial sectors in 32 states among India in 2015 is constructed.In the last stage,the multi-regional input-output model is applied to calculate India’s regional consumption-based carbon emissions which prompt to analyze the socio-economic factors driving India’s carbon emissions from the perspective of the industrial chain.By tracking the carbon emissions embodied in trade between Indian states,this research explores the emission mitigation path and responsibility sharing mechanism of regional cooperation in India.According to research findings,the total energy related production-based carbon emission among India in 2015 is 1778.3 million tons,and the total of the top six states is 917.9 million tons,accounting for 55.1%of the national production-based emission.Carbon emissions at the production end in the eastern region are mainly driven by metal and non-metal manufacturing(more than 46.2%),while those in other regions are mainly driven by the energy sector.The positive drivers of regional production-based emissions growth in India from 2012 to 2015 are mainly personal wealth effects.In most regions,emission intensity effects show a positive effect on carbon emissions growth,while in the regions around New Delhi it shows a negative effect.Meanwhile,household consumption dominates consumption-based emissions at state levels,accounting for 59.0%-77.6%of total consumption-based emissions,while investmentled emissions are relatively higher in developed regions than those in developing regions.More than 30.0%of consumption-based emissions in developed regions are imported from less developed states with higher carbon intensity,which indicates a large spillover effect of the trade modes between those regions.On account of the above results,this research puts proposals to reduce emissions from the perspectives of production and consumption.From the perspective of the production,the central and eastern regions should mainly focus on reducing the intensity of carbon emissions,and promote energy reform and efficiency reform,which will reduce the imbalance of carbon emissions among regions.From the perspective of the consumption,policy makers need to fully consider the regional heterogeneity of industrial structure and population.While laying emphasis on local emission reduction policies in developed regions,they must also pay attention to the problem of emissions leakage in developing regions.It is an advisable approach for policy makers to strengthen inter-state cooperation in carbon emission reduction technologies,and make developed regions with higher consumption levels bear the cost of lowcarbon technology transformation in part of the developing regions.