Interactive Coupling Relationship And Scenario Simulation Of Urbanization And Eco-Environment In The Central Plains Urban Agglomeration

With the acceleration of China’s urbanization process,the eco-environment problems are becoming more and more serious,and the negative externalities are significant.The Central Plains urban agglomeration is adjacent to the developed coastal areas in the East and the vast western region in the West.It is one of the important hubs of modern land transportation and is of great significance to promote the rise of central China.However,in the rapid construction stage of the Central Plains urban agglomeration,the problems of haze,water shortage,serious pollution and other problems in some cities threaten the sustainable development of urban agglomeration.Realizing the coordination and interaction between economy,society,resources and environment has become an important issue to be solved urgently in the study of the coupling relationship between urbanization and eco-environment.At present,most studies focus more on the impact of urbanization on the ecological environment of the country,the eastern coastal urban agglomeration,provincial administrative regions,and a single city,while few studies have explored the interaction relationship and dynamic change characteristics between the two within the Central Plains urban agglomeration.In view of this,this paper follows the research ideas from the past to the future,constructs a complete overall framework of the interactive coupling relationship between urbanization and eco-environment,and applies this framework to the core development area of the Central Plains urban agglomeration.Based on the comprehensive evaluation of the urbanization level and eco-environmental quality of each city,the framework uses the coupling coordination degree model(CCDM)and geographically and temporally weighted regression(GTWR)to measure the current situation of urbanization and eco-environmental coordination from 2003 to2019,and reveals the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of their interaction.Secondly,the system dynamics(SD)method is used to construct the SD model of the urbanization and eco-environment coupling system;arithmetic mean,empirical function and other methods are used to quantify the relationship between variables,and the validity of the model is tested.Set up six simulation scenarios of natural evolution,economic growth,resource conservation,environmental protection,technology orientation and coordinated development,and dynamically simulate and predict the change trend of urbanization level and eco-environment quality from 2020 to 2035 by changing the value of control parameters.Finally,corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward according to the current situation of regional development.The results show that:(1)From 2003 to 2019,the urbanization level and eco-environment quality gradually improved,and the contribution share of spatial urbanization and ecoenvironment pressure was significantly higher than that of other factors.The spatial pattern of high urbanization area remains unchanged,the spatial pattern of medium urbanization area and slightly high urbanization area is relatively stable,and the spatial pattern of the low-urbanization area disappears;The eco-environment is dominated by the middle eco-environment area.After 2013,the spatial pattern of slightly superior and superior eco-environment area expands,and the spatial pattern of inferior eco-environment area disappears.(2)From 2003 to 2019,the coupling coordination degree slowly increases from0.546 to 0.768,and changed from a near-disorder to basic coordination.Among all cities,Zhengzhou,Xuchang and Luohe have a relatively high level of coordinated development,Luoyang,Pingdingshan,Xinxiang,Jiaozuo,Jiyuan,Hebi and Jincheng are in the middle,and Kaifeng,Shangqiu,Zhoukou and Bozhou are relatively low;The basic type is dominated by the lag of urbanization,and the level of urbanization needs to be further improved.(3)From 2003 to 2019,the synergy between urbanization and the ecoenvironment increased,and the interaction relationship tended to converge.The negative interaction between urbanization and eco-environment is mainly concentrated in the central and western regions,such as Luoyang,Jincheng,Jiyuan and other cities.In these regions,economic urbanization and spatial urbanization exacerbate the deterioration of eco-environment.In turn,eco-environment pressure and eco-environment state also restrict the development of urbanization.(4)Simulation results of SD model of urbanization and eco-environment coupling system,the coordinated development model combines the advantages of the first five schemes,and urbanization shows a good development momentum.By adjusting the proportion of investment in three industries,improving the recycling rate of industrial solid waste,improving the efficiency of irrigation water per unit and other measures,the ecological pressure has been alleviated.which is a relatively optimal solution to achieve regional coordinated development.