Research On The Impact Of The Development Of China’s Carbon Emission Trading Market On The Realization Of Nationally Determined Contributions

The Chinese government attaches great importance to the issue of climate change.First,in 2014,it promises to achieve the peak of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030.Later,in 2020,it commits to strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.In order to achieve the above commitments,China has adopted a variety of policies and measures,among which the establishment and operation of a national carbon emission trading market is the core policy tool and market tool to achieve the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.Since 2011,Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai and other places have carried out pilot projects for carbon emissions trading.At the end of 2017,China started the construction of a national carbon emissions trading market.On July 16,2021,the market opened,and it currently only targets the power generation industry.However,the carbon market is still in its infancy in China,and there are many areas that need to be improved.Is the practice for a single industry the best path to achieve carbon neutrality and carbon peaking?Are there better policies to enable the carbon market to better serve China’s Nationally Determined Contributions?These are the issues worthy of exploring.Starting from the basic principles of the carbon market,this paper analyzes the laws and characteristics of the carbon market through economic theory,provides an analytical framework for the operation mechanism of the carbon market,prepares the macro and micro social accounting matrix(SAM)of traditional energy in 2018 according to the input-output table in 2018,and constructs a dynamic computable general equilibrium(CGE)model,and then one baseline scenario and seven scenarios are constructed according to different carbon market coverage and different policy choices.Through the comprehensive analysis of the positive and negative effects resulted from the implementation of simulations,the optimal policy choice for the development of the carbon market and the relation to the achievement of Nationally Determined Contributions was studied.The research found that:All seven scenarios,with different coverage,different levels of emission reduction policies,have certain emission reduction effects.Among them,the combination of the low emission reduction policies and the carbon market covering the power generation industry has shown strong sustainability in the acceleration effect of achieving carbon peaks.The combination of the high emission reduction policy and the carbon market covering all industries,is relatively optimal in terms of accelerating carbon neutrality.The paper can provide policy reference and development suggestions for chinese carbon market development to better achieve China’s Nationally Determined Contributions.