Scenario Forecast Of Carbon Emission Peak In China’s Heavy Pollution Industries

At present,the intensification of the greenhouse effect has become a major challenge affecting the survival of all human beings,and the key killer is the production and emission of carbon dioxide gas.Since the reform and opening up,the development of China’s industrial enterprises has driven economic development.At the same time,the rapid economic development has also caused various problems in ecological,resource and environmental aspects.General Secretary Xi Jinping once proposed at the 75 th United Nations General Assembly: "China will Strive to reach the peak of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030,and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060." The establishment of this strategic goal is not only a strong commitment made by China to the world,but also conducive to promoting the construction of my country’s own ecological civilization.At present,China is committed to the important stage of realizing the "double-carbon" goal,the heavy pollution industries with high energy consumption and high emission are obviously unsustainable.Therefore,in order to achieve the overall level of China’s high-quality,sustainable development,carbon emission reduction in key industries is essential.However,by reviewing and summarizing the relevant researches,it is found that there are many studies on carbon emissions in a single industry,and there are few studies on the characteristic industry as a whole according to industry standards.There are many studies on carbon emission factors in specific industries,and there is almost no forecast and analysis of carbon emissions in key industries.There are many studies focusing on single carbon emission or green innovation,but there is a lack of characteristic analysis that combines carbon emission and green innovation.Based on this,this thesis selects 16 heavily polluting industries in China as the key carbon emission research objects,predicts and analyzes the development trend of energy carbon emissions in the overall and special industries,and the SBM model is used to measure the green innovation efficiency of 16 heavy pollution industries,Systematic clustering analyzes the industry clustering results under different carbon emission and green innovation levels,and finally proposes specific green and emission reduction measures.The research shows that:(1)Among the energy carbon emissions calculated based on the 8 kinds of energy consumption from 2003 to 2018,processing of petroleum,coal and other fuel industries;Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous Metals;and Production and Supply of Electric Power and Heat Power are the three industries with the most carbon emissions among the selected heavy pollution industries.(2)In addition to the high-carbon scenario,the overall energy consumption carbon emissions of China’s 16 heavily polluting industries show an inverted “ U” shape in both the baseline and low-carbon scenarios,reaching a peak in 2018,and the amount of carbon dioxide emitted thereafter.The energy carbon emissions of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries in the three scenarios are all inverted“ U-shaped”,and all reach the highest point of energy carbon emissions in 2014.(3)Manufacture of Leather,Fur,Feather and Related Products;Manufacture of Medicines;Manufacture of Chemical Fibers;Production and Supply of Electric Power and Heat Power;processing of petroleum,coal and other fuel industries;and Manufacture of Metal Products belong to the new category Ⅰ,In addition,the energy carbon emissions of these industries are always increasing,while the efficiency of green innovation has a downward trend;coal mining and mineral processing;Mining and processing of Ferrous Metal Ores;Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous Metals belong to the new category Ⅱ.Although the green innovation capacity is at a low level,its energy carbon emissions are also declining synchronously.According to the above research,we can find that the total energy consumption and energy structure are the key factors affecting the energy carbon emissions of China’s heavy pollution industries,in order to effectively reduce the carbon dioxide emissions of key industries and achieve the goal of carbon neutrality.This thesis mainly puts forward targeted policy suggestions from six aspects: energy structure,energy consumption,industrial structure and main advantages.