Research On Influencing Factors Of China’s Regional Carbon Emissions And Carbon Peak Prediction

Global warming mainly resulted in by greenhouse gas emissions is becoming serious ever than before.The world community has reached a consensus that it’s time to reduce greenhouse gases.In September 2020,China pledged to achieve carbon dioxide emission peak by 2030 and strived to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.At present,China’s carbon dioxide emissions are still on the rise.Due to the differences in terms of population,economic development level,industrial structure and so on,different regions have different carbon dioxide emissions intensity and changing trends.There is regional heterogeneity in achieving the 2030 emission peak target,there are also multiple paths to achieve carbon dioxide emission peak in each region.In consequence,it has great meanings of theory and practice to analyze the influencing factors of carbon emissions in various economic regions and predict the timing of carbon peaking under different scenarios,so as to provide a decision-making reference for choosing the optimal path to achieve emission peak.This paper analyzes the social and economic development status,carbon emission characteristics of economic zones,and the impact of various factors on carbon emissions concluded by using the extended STIRPAT model.Then,based on the historical development data and development planning of each economic zone,various scenarios are designed to predict carbon emissions,attempting to find feasible paths to reach emissions peak by 2030.First,the historical data and development trends of population,economic development level,urbanization,industrial structure,openness and carbon emissions in each economic zone from 2000 to 2019 were analyzed.The results show that the levels of social economic development and the carbon dioxide control vary among economic zones.The economically developed economic zones have efficient and intensive ways of economic development.The economic zones focusing on energy production and the zones with backward economic development has higher energy intensity and carbon emission intensity than the other zones.Second,based on the STIRPAT model ridge regression analysis of the main factors affecting carbon emissions in each economic zone,the results suggest that are different effects of the same factors in each economic zone on carbon emissions,but in general,in addition to population size,urbanization Levels have the greatest impact on carbon emissions.The differences in energy intensity and carbon emissions per unit of energy are relatively small among economic zones,and the degree of openness of the southern coastal comprehensive economic zone significantly inhibits carbon emissions.Third,96 carbon emission scenarios are designed based on the possible development trends of various influencing factors,and 6 typical scenarios are selected for key analysis.The results are as follows: the baseline scenario does not achieve emission peak before 2030;In industrial upgrading scenarios,energy-saving development scenarios,clean The development scenario and the economic slowdown scenario,the carbon peak can be achieved in 2030;the green development scenario achieves the carbon peak in 2025,and the carbon emission peak is the lowest.Among the multiple achievable paths for carbon peaking by 2030,the green development scenario that combines energy conservation and clean development is the best.This scenario takes into account economic development while reducing carbon emissions.Finally,based on the above research,this paper put forward targeted policy recommendations.