The Empirical Study On The Decoupling Relationship Between Industrial Carbon Emissions And Economic Growth In Jiangxi Province

In 2020,General Secretary Xi Jinping clearly stated at the United Nations General Assembly the goal of achieving carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.As the first batch of national ecological civilization pilot areas,Jiangxi Province should be at the forefront of the national ecological civilization construction pattern.However,as an underdeveloped area,accelerating economic development is still the primary economic decision of the Jiangxi government,which will inevitably consume more energy,while industrial department is also a major energy consumption and carbon emission player in Jiangxi,and plays a decisive role in the process of achieving carbon emission reduction goals in Jiangxi Province.Therefore,Jiangxi’s industrial carbon emission reduction is faced with challenges in industrial structure,development stage,etc.,and it is urgent to find a solution.This paper uses the IPCC measurement method to measure the industrial carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province from 2000 to 2019,and analyzes its change trend and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics.Then,the driving factors of carbon emissions were further analyzed using GDIM.The driving factors of carbon emissions are discussed from the perspectives of phase analysis and cumulative contribution analysis.Finally,based on the results of GDIM,further explore the decoupling effect between the influencing factors with the largest contribution value and the strongest driving effect(that is,economic growth)and carbon emissions,that is,based on the dual perspectives of speed decoupling and quantity decoupling,build Tapio decoupling model and panel Environmental Kuznets Curve model(EKC)to comprehensively measure the decoupling relationship and the actual effect of carbon emissions changes caused by the government’s energy conservation and emission reduction efforts.The research results show that:(1)Jiangxi Province’s industrial carbon emissions increased rapidly in the early stage and slowed down in the later stage.From 59.1264 million tons in 2000 to 203.5054 million tons in 2019,the growth rate was as high as 244.19%;the carbon emission intensity was in the early and middle stages.Decrease,the trend of slow decline in the later period,from 10.95 tons / ten thousand yuan to 3.39 tons / ten thousand yuan.The overall spatial distribution of carbon emission intensity and carbon emission is low in the southeast and high in the northwest.(2)From the perspective of speed decoupling,it can be divided into two stages: the first stage is from 2000 to 2011.In this stage,there are three types of decoupling states: expansion negative decoupling,weak decoupling and strong decoupling,mainly showing weak decoupling state.This is a less than ideal state;the second stage is from 2012 to 2019.There are five decoupling states: weak decoupling,expanding negative decoupling,strong decoupling,growth link and weak negative decoupling.Decoupling and weak decoupling appear alternately,and the overall trend is toward strong decoupling.(3)From the perspective of quantitative decoupling,the quadratic form of the EKC curve is an inverted "U" shape,which satisfies the EKC hypothesis and has an inflection point of 78,580 yuan / person.However,the cubic EKC curve has a better fitting effect.The cubic EKC curve has an "N" shape,indicating that carbon emissions have experienced a process of "rising → falling → rising" with the growth of per capita GDP,and there are two inflection points: the first inflection point is 19,190 yuan per person,and the second inflection point is 78,780 yuan per person.Nanchang,Xinyu and Yingtan crossed the first inflection point before 2000,indicating that in 2000,these three cities were all in the declining stage of industrial carbon emissions decreasing with economic growth.Other cities with districts crossed the first inflection point after 2000.By 2019,only Nanchang,Jiujiang,Xinyu and Yingtan have crossed the second inflection point,which means that these cities are in the rising stage of industrial carbon emissions with economic growth,and the quantity has not been decoupled.Other cities are still between the first inflection point and the second inflection point,indicating that these cities are in the declining stage of industrial carbon emissions with economic growth,it is decoupled in quantity.(4)Comparative study on speed decoupling and quantity decoupling.From the results of speed decoupling,it is known that the current strong decoupling and weak decoupling occur alternately,and strong decoupling has not been fully realized;from the results of quantitative decoupling,it is known that Jiangxi Province’s industrial per capita GDP is 69,075 yuan / person in 2019,failed to reach the inflection point of 78,580 yuan / person(the inflection point of the quadratic EKC curve),indicating that the number is not decoupled.With the help of the "environmental mountain" theory,Jiangxi Province is in a "dilemma" between economic growth and environmental protection,and the government needs to make long-term preparations for economic and environmental policies.(5)Based on the empirical conclusions,four suggestions are put forward in terms of strengthening regional exchanges and cooperation,improving energy structure,industrial technology upgrading and industrial transformation and upgrading.