Study On The Relationship Between China’s Agricultural Carbon Emissions,Water Consumption And Added Value

Global warning and water shortage are the common concerns of all countries in the world.As a traditional agricultural country,China’s agricultural added value has increased year by year,but the production model is relatively simple,the greenhouse gas emissions caused by agricultural production are large,and the ratio of water consumption is largest.Under the background of increasingly severe problems of climate warning and water shortage,exploring low-carbon and water-saving agricultural development models is of great significance for building a resource-saving and environment-friendly society.A large amount of carbon emissions and water consumption will affect the interaction between the carbon cycle and the water cycle in the ecosystem,leading to frequent natural disasters and affecting agricultural production.Exploring the relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and water consumption is critical to maintaining the stability of agricultural ecosystems and ensuring agricultural production.At the same time,the emission of agricultural carbon sources is usually accompanied by the use of water resources.Exploring the relationship between agricultural carbon emissions,water consumption and added value can promote the coordinated development of the environment,resources and agriculture.First this paper calculates the agricultural carbon emissions of 31 provinces and cities in China from 2003 to 2017.Then based on agricultural carbon emissions and water consumption data,the exploratory spatial data analysis method(ESDA)is combined with the spatial metric model based on the environmental Kuznets curve(EKC)theory to visualize and quantify the spatial effects of agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural water consumption in China.The Tapio decoupling theory is combined with the spatial metric model based on the environmental Kuznets curve(EKC)theory to study the relationship between China’s agricultural carbon emissions,water consumption and added value.Finally,based on the empirical results of the article to make recommendations.The analysis results show that China’s agricultural carbon emissions and water consumption have a certain degree of volatility,and both agricultural carbon intensity and water consumption intensity show a downward trend.Due to differences in climate and resource endowments,both agricultural carbon emissions and water consumption have significant spatial effects.In 2017,carbon emissions formed two significant "high-high" clusters and two "low-high" clusters,water consumption formed three "high-high" clusters and two "low-low" clusters,carbon emissions and water consumption have obvious polarization,and the polarization of water consumption is more prominent.The results of the spatial econometric model show that there is a U-Kuznets curve for agricultural carbon emissions in China,but the decoupling relationship between carbon agricultural emissions and agricultural added value in 2017 shows that 15 provinces and cities have strong decoupling,the increase in per capita agricultural value and the decrease in carbon emissions.Although the Kuznets curve is currently rising,with the continuous efforts of various provinces and cities,it is expected to achieve low carbon development in agriculture.There is an inverted U-Kuznets curve for agricultural water consumption,but the decoupling relationship between agricultural water consumption and agricultural added value in 2017 is negative decoupling in 14 provinces and cities,the increase in agricultural value added and the increase in water consumption.Three provinces and cities showed an expansionary decoupling,the increase in agricultural added value and the significant increase in water consumption.Even though agricultural water consumption is now in the decline phase of the Kuznets curve,the situation is still not optimistic.There is a positive spatial spillover effect on agricultural carbon emissions and water consumption.The carbon emission intensity in the adjacent area increased by 1%,and the carbon emission intensity in the region increased by 0.26%on average.The water consumption intensity in the adjacent area increased by 1%,and the water consumption intensity in the region increased by of 0.37%on average.There is a two-way positive effect between agricultural carbon emission and water consumption.The water consumption intensity increased by 1%,and the carbon emission intensity increased by of 0.76%on average.The carbon emission intensity increased by 1%,and water consumption intensity increased by of 0.38%on average.The innovation of this paper:First,considering the impact between environment and resources,and analyzing agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural water consumption under the Kuznets curve theory.It is possible to simultaneously evaluate the resource utilization efficiency and the level of pollution to the environment and the interaction between resources and the environment in the process of agricultural economic development.Second,more comprehensive measurement of agricultural carbon emissions.Combining the exploratory spatial data analysis method(ESDA)with the EKC spatial econometric model,not only can the overall spatial effect of carbon emissions and water consumption be observed,but also the aggregation effect can be viewed from within the provinces and cities,and the specific degree of impact can be quantified.Third,combining the decoupling theory with the EKC theory can provide a more comprehensive study of the relationship between agricultural carbon emissions,agricultural water consumption,and agricultural economic development.The shortcomings of this paper:First,in the process of measuring carbon emissions,the differences between domestic and foreign countries and the carbon emission factors of foreign studies are not considered.Second,in the study of agricultural carbon emissions and water consumption,the main analysis of crop farming and livestock and poultry farming did not analyze fisheries and forestry.