Reliability Design Optimization Of Natural Gas Transmission Network Considering Uncertain Failure Risk

Natural gas resources are widely used in all aspects of national economy,production and people’s livelihood.With the implementation of national energy strategy,the consumption of natural gas in our country is growing rapidly and the corresponding transportation volume of natural gas is also climbing day by day.Natural gas pipeline,as the main way to transport natural gas worldwide,not only guarantees the long distances transportation of natural gas,but also guarantees the downstream gas supply.However,as the topology of natural gas pipeline network becomes more and more complex,the security situation of natural gas supply becomes increasingly prominent.And the demand for reliability of natural gas transmission networks has increased significantly.Due to the failure caused by external factors(such as earthquake,flood and other natural disasters,third-party construction activities,etc.),pipeline explosion,natural gas supply interruption and other catastrophic events occur frequently,which often cause serious life and economic losses.Its sudden and powerful destructiveness have brought serious threat to the safety of life and property of the state and people.In addition,reliability is often regarded as the ability to withstand damage and recover quickly.At the same time,gas companies’ continued investment in the modernization and reliability of the gas transmission network will reduce their maintenance costs over time,reducing losses and saving significant capital cost.Therefore,in the increasingly tense situation,how to effectively deal with the damage of external factors to natural gas transmission network and improve the reliability of natural gas transmission network against external damage is a problem that the government and natural gas enterprises must face.For this purpose,based on robust optimization method and network interception theory method,this paper studies the reliability design optimization of natural gas transmission network based on the basic characteristics of natural gas transmission network design,that is,how to minimize the loss of enterprises through a series of preventive measures before and after the unknown external factors damage accurate information.In this paper,the reliability design optimization problem of natural gas transmission network considering uncertain failure risk of enterprises is studied.Aiming at the uncertainty of external damage,a robust optimization method is adopted for modeling.Considering various decisions such as pre-prevention and post-resource reallocation,a two-stage mixed integer programming model is established to minimize the unmet total demand.An effective and feasible optimization method for reliability design of natural gas transmission network considering uncertain failure risk is proposed.Since the three-layer,two-stage robust optimization model constructed in this paper is an NP-Hard problem,which is difficult to solve directly,Column-and-Constraint Generation algorithm,(C&CG algorithm)is adopted to solve the model effectively and efficiently,which can effectively improve the decision-making efficiency of enterprises for sudden natural gas transmission network failure events.In addition,considering the advantages of heuristic algorithm in solving speed,this paper also presents the algorithm design of two-stage robust optimization model based on Tabu search-particle swarm optimization algorithm,so that the decision scheme can be obtained in a shorter time.Finally,this paper applies the research results to a specific case of reliability design optimization of C Company’s natural gas transmission network.The model and algorithm proposed in this paper put forward an effective and feasible scheme according to the actual problems of the enterprise,which confirms the research value of this paper.