Research On Evaluation And Simulation Prediction Of The Coordination Degree Of ’Production-living-ecological’ Of Functions In Nanning City’s Territorial Space

Since reform and opening up,the level of industrialization and urbanization has been increasing continuously,the production space has been reconstructed obviously,the living space has increased rapidly,and the ecological space has been shrinking continuously.Under the background of the pursuit of harmonious coexistence between man and nature,how to plan the new pattern of territorial space development and protection,so as to make the coordinated development of the production function,living function and ecological function of territorial space has become a hot topic of social concern.On the basis of the analysis of the evolution and the evaluation of the coordination change of the the ‘Production-Living-Ecological’ functions of the territorial space,and then the simulation and prediction of its coordinated development trend,will have a deeper understanding of the current development of the territorial space functions and the changes in the next stage,and take timely adjustment measures to improve the coordination and utilization efficiency of the regional territorial space,and promote high-quality development,quality of life and efficient governance in the region.Based on the human-land relationship regional system theory,regional sustainable development theory,regional coordinated development theory,coupled coordination theory and other theories,with the function evaluation,coordination degree evaluation and simulation prediction as the entry point,the research is carried out with the development and change of Nanning’s territorial space from 2000 to 2020 as the object.First of all,the paper identifies and classifies the ‘Production-Living-Ecological’ functional space from the vertical dimension.Based on the clear change of the intensity and scale of the ‘Production-Living-Ecological’ functional space,the paper constructs the evaluation system of the territorial space‘Production-Living-Ecological’ functions,and uses the analytic hierarchy process,entropy value method and comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate and analyze the territorial space‘Production-Living-Ecological’ functions of Nanning City.Secondly,the coupling coordination degree model was used to evaluate the coordination among production,living and ecological functions in the study area,and analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics.Finally,based on the evaluation index system of the ‘Production-Living-Ecological’ functions of Nanning City’s territorial space from 2000 to 2020,the exponential smooth prediction model and the grey prediction model are respectively used to forecast the coordination degree of‘Production-Living-Ecological’ functions in 2021-2035.The main conclusions of the study are as follows:(1)The change rate of‘Production-Living-Ecological’ space in Nanning City shows a trend of accelerating.The production space and ecological space are weakened,while the living space is strengthened.(2)The evaluation index of territorial space production function,living function and overall function of Nanning was relatively low in the initial stage,and showed a gradually rising trend during the study period;The ecological function evaluation index was relatively high in the early stage,and showed a trend of rising first,declining and finally stabilizing.(3)The coordination degree of the‘Production-Living-Ecological’ functions of Nanning City’s territorial space showed an upward trend during the study period,transforming from a dissonant state to a harmonious state,with a good development trend.(4)Both the exponential smooth prediction model and the grey prediction model show a rising trend of coordination after predicting the coordination degree of the ‘Production-Living-Ecological’ functions of Nanning City in 2021-2035,and the simulated prediction result of the exponential smooth prediction model is better than that of the grey prediction model.