| As a major source of greenhouse gases,carbon emissions are gradually aggravating global warming,and in order to achieve the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,countries around the world have formulated relevant policies and implemented low-carbon development strategies according to their own national conditions.2020,at the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly,General Secretary Xi proposed the goal of carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.As the second largest source of carbon emissions,land has an important role in influencing the achievement of the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.In recent years,with the rapid development of social economy,the urbanization rate of Zunyi City has been rising,causing changes in urban industrial structure and land use transformation.The unreasonable land use transformation has led to the waste of resources,ecological degradation,soil and water pollution,and lagging development of rural areas,etc.The unreasonable land use structure,resource scarcity and environmental pollution will become the crisis and challenge for the future development of Zunyi City.Therefore,taking Zunyi city as the research object,this paper firstly analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use using 3S technology;then measured the land use carbon emissions and ecosystem service values using carbon emission accounting model and ecosystem service value assessment model,analyzed their change characteristics in time and space dimensions,and analyzed the correlation between carbon emissions and ecosystem service values using bivariate spatial autocorrelation.Finally,the Markov-Plus model was used to simulate and predict the land use changes in Zunyi City in 2025 and 2030,and the gray prediction model was used to predict the carbon emissions from construction land in 2025 and 2030,and the net carbon emissions and ecosystem service values of Zunyi City in 2025 and 2030 were obtained.The study is carried out to provide some reference basis for optimizing the land use structure of Zunyi city,improving the ecological environment quality and achieving the carbon peak carbon neutrality target.The main conclusions of the study are as follows.(1)Spatial and temporal land use evolution characteristics.Time dimension:In the period of 2005-2020,the areas of arable land,forest land and grassland in Zunyi City are decreasing,decreasing by 22,904.3hm~2,11,267.8hm~2and 7,317.4hm~2respectively in 15 years;the areas of water and construction land are increasing continuously,increasing by 8,920.7hm~2and 27,262hm~2respectively in 15 years,among which the arable land,forest land and grassland The arable land,forest land and grassland are both transferred out and transferred in,and they are transferred to other land types respectively,while the water area and construction land are mainly transferred in,and the unused land has no obvious transfer change because of its small volume.Spatial dimension:the transfer of construction land,water area and forest land is relatively concentrated,while the transfer of other land types is relatively scattered;the transfer of construction land is the most obvious and concentrated,widely distributed in the north-south direction of Huichuan District,Honghuagang District and Buzhou District and the south of Suiyang County,followed by the expansion of construction land in the central part of Renhuai City,Chishui City and the western part of Xishui County;the transfer of forest land is mainly concentrated in the northern part of Daozhen County and The transfer of forest land is mainly concentrated in the northern part of Daozhen County and the central part of Meitan County;the transferred water area is mainly distributed in the border of Yuqing County and Meitan County and within Yuqing County.(2)Spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use carbon emissions and ecosystem service values.Time dimension:Between 2005 and 2020,the net carbon emissions of Zunyi City increased rapidly,from 3,716,500 tons in 2005 to12,332,500 tons in 2020,an increase of 8,616,000 tons,or 231.83%.The value of ecosystem services in Zunyi City shows a fluctuating upward trend,increasing from76.405 billion yuan to 76.889 billion yuan,an increase of 485 million yuan in 15years,with a growth rate of about 0.63%.The size of ecosystem services of different land types in order is:forest land>cropland>grassland>water>unused land>construction land.Spatial dimension:carbon sinks occupy almost two-thirds of Zunyi City and are concentrated in the central,western and southeastern parts;low value areas of carbon sources are concentrated in the north and southwest;medium and high value areas of carbon sources are mainly distributed in the concentrated areas of construction land,mainly in the south of Zunyi City,namely Huichuan District,Honghuagang District and Buzhou District,and the rest are scattered in the remaining districts and counties.The areas with high ecosystem service values are located in the central and western parts of Zunyi,i.e.,Tongzi County,Suiyang County,and Xishui County,which have large areas of forest and grassland ecological land;while the areas with low ecosystem service values are located in Zhengan County,Dazhen County,and Chishui City,which have concentrated non-ecological land.The correlation analysis of carbon emission and ecosystem service value shows that there is a negative spatial correlation between land use carbon emission and ecosystem service value in Zunyi City from 2005 to 2020,and Moran’s I shows a decreasing trend over time,from-0.095 to-0.166,with a decrease of 74.74%,which indicates that the spatial correlation between land use carbon emission and ecosystem service value This indicates that the negative spatial correlation between land use carbon emission and ecosystem service value becomes more obvious over time.(3)The prediction of land use carbon emission and ecosystem service value.The net carbon emissions from land use in Zunyi will increase in the future,reaching14,959,900 tons in 2025 and 17,339,300 tons in 2030 under the low-carbon development scenario,with an increase of 5,068,000 tons or 40.6%in 10 years.In terms of spatial distribution,the number of unit grids with land use carbon emissions greater than 10,000 tons has a tendency to expand but is not obvious,indicating that the growth rate of land use carbon emissions is significantly controlled and the carbon peak target is expected to be achieved by 2030.The amount of ecosystem service value will continue to increase,with approximately$77.108 billion in 2025 under the low-carbon development scenario and$77.224 billion in 2030,an increase of$334million in ten years,an increase close to three times that of the natural development scenario,or about 0.43%.In terms of spatial distribution,the high value area of ecosystem service value decreases significantly in 2025-2030,and the amount of ecosystem service value in other value domains does not change significantly,but the total value of ecosystem service increases. |
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