Spatialand Temporal Evolution Of Carbon Emissions And Carbon Footprint Of Land-Use Change In Wuhan Metropolitan Area

While consuming high-carbon-based energy for economic development,humans inevitably generate a series of habitat pollution problems induced by greenhouse gas emissions.Changes in the use of land as a host site for daily human production and life are an important cause of climate change.Urbanization,economic development and excessive energy consumption are all inextricably linked to land use.Land use changes not only change the natural carbon cycle of cities,but also have an indirect impact on anthropogenic carbon emission processes.The study of urban carbon emission and its influencing factors from the perspective of land use is of practical significance to the region in formulating land use policies,achieving carbon emission reduction tasks,and promoting low-carbon and high-quality development.By processing land use data and energy consumption data,a carbon emission accounting model was constructed to measure and analyze the carbon emissions of various types of land based on the analysis of the characteristics of land use changes in Wuhan metropolitan area.By calculating the land use carbon emissions,carbon sinks and net carbon emissions in Wuhan metropolitan area during the study period,the decomposition of their influencing factors is then analyzed using a spatio-temporal geographically weighted regression model.The carbon footprint,carbon ecological carrying capacity and carbon ecological deficit of Wuhan city circle are calculated according to the definition of carbon footprint.On basis of that,the concept of three-dimensional carbon footprint is introduced to obtain the size and depth of carbon footprint,and the spatial autocorrelation analysis is applied to explore the spatial correlation characteristics of the size and depth of carbon footprint in Wuhan metropolitan area.The main conclusions of the study are as follows:(1)The land use status has changed significantly during 2000-2020.From the characteristics of area change of land types,the area of arable land,forest land,grassland and unused land continued to decline,and the area of construction land and water area increased slightly,79.74%of the increase in construction land was transferred from arable land.In terms of dynamic land use changes,the land use changes are more drastic between 2000 and 2010,and the land use changes in Wuhan metropolitan area tend to be stable from 2010 to 2020.(2)The land use carbon emissions from 2000 to 2020 show a continuous growth trend,with construction land as the main carbon source and forest land as the main carbon sink.In terms of spatial distribution,the area of high carbon emission patches increased by 30.40%and the area of high carbon sink patches decreased by 122.79km2 during the research period.The areas with higher carbon emissions are concentrated in the center of the urban area,and the areas with lower emissions are mostly distributed in the peripheral areas far from the center of the urban area.(3)There is a more obvious spatial heterogeneity in the influencing factors of carbon emissions in Wuhan metropolitan area,and the most important influencing factor is the industrial structure,followed by the technology level and the proportion of construction land.The influence of various influencing factors on carbon emissions varies greatly from region to region.The proportion of construction land has an increasing degree of influence on carbon emissions,while the level of urbanization and the degree of population agglomeration have a decreasing degree of influence on carbon emissions.The influence of industrial structure,economic development level and technology level on carbon emission shows a trend of fluctuation and change.The effect of various influencing factors on different regions varies significantly.Therefore,when formulating carbon reduction strategies and setting carbon reduction targets,the actual situation and development characteristics of the region should be taken into account in a targeted manner.(4)During the study period,the carbon footprint of Wuhan metropolitan area shows a rising trend year by year,while the ecological carrying capacity shows a decreasing trend,thus causing an expanding ecological deficit.The carbon footprint size shows a trend of decreasing and then increasing,while the carbon footprint depth is almost always greater than 1,indicating that the carbon ecological environment problem in Wuhan metropolitan area is more serious and the trend of ecological environment deterioration is aggravated.The spatial clustering characteristics of carbon footprint size and depth show different trends over time,with carbon footprint size showing obvious high-high and low-low clustering distribution,while the spatial clustering characteristics of carbon footprint depth change from single to diversified.(5)Based on the empirical study conducted in Wuhan metropolitan area,three suggestions are given to promote low-carbon development optimize industrial structure and build a low-carbon modern industrial system;improve carbon sink potential and pay attention to ecological protection construction in the urban area;give play to demonstration effect and promote low-carbon life and consumption.