Technical And Economic Analysis And Policy Research Of Carbon Capture In Coal-fired Power Plant

Under the construction of a new energy system,the large-scale integration of new energy brings enormous pressure to the safe and stable operation of the power system.For a considerable period of time in the future,coal-fired power will still be the main supporting power source for system flexibility and power generation,and strengthening the clean and efficient utilization of coal will be the focus of future development in the energy field.Carbon capture and storage(CCS)can achieve "near zero" emissions of coal power units,which is of great significance for China’s coal power development and transformation.Due to the high cost of CCS technology and the uncertainty of its benefits,its promotion and application in coal-fired power plants face significant challenges.Based on this,this article conducts a technical and economic analysis of carbon capture in coal-fired power plants.The main research content of this paper is as follows:Firstly,the factors affecting the benefits of CCS construction in coal-fired power plants were analyzed.Firstly,identify the factors that affect the benefits of CCS construction,and analyze the uncertain factors that affect the benefits of CCS construction from three aspects:external environment,unit conditions,and CCS technology development.Secondly,considering the varying degrees of impact of various factors on the benefits of CCS construction,the Gray DEMATEL method is selected for screening the main factors.Finally,the main influencing factors of CCS construction revenue were determined based on the screening results.Secondly,a technical and economic analysis model for carbon capture coal-fired power plants based on real options was constructed.Firstly,a quantitative method for the main influencing factors was proposed,laying the foundation for technical and economic analysis.Secondly,the technical and economic analysis model of carbon capture in coal-fired power plants is constructed from the perspectives of net present value and real options.Finally,combining net present value theory and real option theory,the decision rules of CCS construction are proposed.Thirdly,a technical and economic analysis was conducted on carbon capture in coal-fired power plants.Firstly,taking 300MW,600MW and 1000MW coal-fired unit as the research objects,the parameters of different coal-fired power plants were determined through literature review and data collection,and preliminary calculations were conducted on the relevant data.Secondly,the net present value and real options are used to calculate the carbon capture construction income of coal fired power plants respectively,and the critical carbon trading price is defined from two perspectives.Finally,sensitivity analysis was conducted to further investigate the impact of major factors on CCS construction decisions.The results indicate that under current market conditions,without relevant policy support,investment in the construction of CCS in coal-fired power plants will result in losses.When favorable changes occur in factors such as carbon trading prices and coal prices,the economy of large capacity coal-fired units significantly improves,but for small capacity coal-fired units(300MW),their investment in CCS will result in losses.Based on the above research conclusions,this article proposes relevant policy recommendations.