Study On The Evaluation Of Carbon Emission Reduction Projects Of Coal Power Enterprises Based On Real Options

With the proposal of China’s "dual carbon" goal and the construction of carbon market,coal power enterprises have begun to transform and upgrade traditional coalfired power generation methods,and gradually began to deploy carbon emission reduction projects such as new energy power generation.On the basis of completing power generation tasks and obtaining income from electricity sales,carbon emission reduction projects can also sell the certified emission reductions generated by the projects on the carbon trading market,bringing additional benefits to enterprises.In this case,a reasonable assessment of the overall investment value of the project can help coal power enterprises recognize the important impact of carbon trading on the value of the project and make the best decision in the project investment process.Carbon emission reduction projects of coal power enterprises have the characteristics of irreversible initial investment,high uncertainty of carbon trading returns,and growth in development.In order to better consider the uncertainty factors in the project and the option value brought by flexible management,this thesis analyzes the compatibility between the characteristics of carbon emission reduction projects and the real option valuation model,and argues that this method can measure the option value in the project well and compensate for the limitations of the basic evaluation method of project value.This thesis divides the value of carbon emission reduction projects of coal power enterprises into three aspects: electricity sales value,carbon trading value and option value.This thesis uses the least squares method to estimate the mean recovery level,mean recovery speed and volatility of carbon prices,and uses the discounted net cash flow method and real option model to analyze the overall value of the project,and then discusses the relevant parameters affecting the optimal investment timing and carbon trading value.On this basis,the XX photovoltaic power generation project invested by Inner Mongolia Power Investment Energy Company is selected as the evaluation case to evaluate the overall investment value of the project,and the evaluation results under the real option model and the net cash flow discount method are compared and analyzed.Finally,this thesis summarizes the research and suggests that investors of carbon emission reduction projects should actively participate in the carbon trading market and reasonably choose the timing of the project investment,while government departments should issue relevant policies to promote the development and improvement of the carbon trading market.The results in this thesis show that:(1)the basic value assessment method has certain limitations: the market method and the cost method are not applicable due to the lack of comparable cases and the inability to accurately measure costs,while the discounted net cash flow method in the income method can often only evaluate the value of the project under static conditions,which is not in line with the actual situation;(2)This thesis selects six carbon trading pilots in Shanghai,Shenzhen,Beijing,Guangdong,Hubei and Tianjin from December 2013 to January 2023,and carbon trading prices in the national unified carbon trading market from July 2021 to January2023 as the data basis,studies the fluctuation of carbon trading prices,finds that carbon trading prices have the characteristics of mean recovery,and establishes a real option model under the partial differential equation method based on this feature.The relevant parameters in the model are estimated by the least squares estimation method;(3)The real option model is more suitable for evaluating the overall investment value of carbon emission reduction projects of coal power enterprises,which can make up for the limitations of basic evaluation methods and derive the optimal critical carbon price for making project investment decisions.