Research On Safety Risk Analysis And Countermeasures Of Arctic Routes From The Perspective Of Resilience Theory

With the global warming in recent years,significant changes have taken place in the navigation environment of the Arctic route,and a convenient maritime channel rich in energy has been fully connected.The opening of the Arctic route will not only change the original world maritime transport pattern,but also enhance the strategic value of the Arctic region again.The significant strategic value and economic potential brought about by the improvement of route navigation environment are changing the international development pattern,which is related to China’s national security and long-term interests.Therefore,as an important global public goods,the safety of the Arctic route deserves attention and discussion.In order to better protect China’s rights and interests in the Arctic region and comply with the international development trend,it is urgent to change our ideas,deeply explore the security risks of Arctic routes and analyze their internal operation mechanisms.The resilience theory breaks the shackles of the traditional risk management theory,recognizes the existence of risk and emphasizes the future oriented sustainable risk adaptation from the perspective of the safety subject,so as to realize the adaptive cycle of the safety environment.In view of this,on the basis of systematically discussing the research results of Arctic route safety,based on the traditional risk management theory,this paper discusses the safety risk profile of Arctic route from the two levels of essential and induced safety risk,and analyzes the risk characteristics and coping difficulties.The resilience theory is introduced to understand the safety risk of Arctic routes from the perspective of safety subjects,and a "low intensity macro" safety risk index system based on "absorption adaptation transformation" is proposed.The route safety risk level is evaluated with the help of the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process multilevel extension combination evaluation model,and it is improved with the help of the fuzzy cognitive map model and the functional resonance analysis method,Scenario simulation method is used to explore the cascading effect of safety risks in Arctic routes.It is found that in terms of risk level assessment,"poor effect of rapid deicing","fuzzy Arctic navigation rules","limited technology and equipment" have reached an unacceptable risk level.In terms of risk cascade effect analysis,"low adaptability of crew" is most likely to lead to "poor team coordination ability","negligence of safety detection" and other factors,while "low adaptability of crew","lack of Arctic relief system","limited technology and equipment" and other risk combinations are most likely to lead to "weak evacuation scheduling ability","slow equipment repair speed","poor team coordination ability" and other factors.Finally,according to the research results,the paper puts forward a structural response plan for security risks to strengthen absorption under low risk,improve adaptability under intensity risk,and promote innovation under macro risk,as well as actively build a new path of resilience governance under the cooperation framework,and carry out three risk response strategies of normalized assessment and analysis based on the resilience theoretical model,so as to provide reference for polar navigation.