The Impact Of Energy Price Fluctuation On Energy-Economy-Environment System

As one of the important input factors for economic growth,energy has made an important contribution to the sustained,rapid and healthy development of the national economy,and is the cornerstone of a country’s stable development and economic prosperity.However,since the outbreak of COVID-19 spread to the normalization of the epidemic,global energy prices have fluctuated dramatically,causing serious impact on the stable economic development and environment of all countries.As the epidemic has been effectively contained,energy prices have continued to rise,exacerbating the imbalance between international energy supply and demand and dragging down the pace of global economic recovery.As a major energy demand country,China has also experienced a sharp rise in energy prices as the epidemic has normalized,which poses a serious threat to national energy security,stable economic development and the realization of dual-carbon goals.Given this background,in order to address the energy,economic and environmental issues in the post-pandemic era,it is critical to understand what impact energy price fluctuations will have on the 3E system,to what extent,and how to minimize these impacts.Therefore,based on the theories of CGE,SAM and 3E system,this paper firstly constructs the specific CGE model of 21 sectors,then uses the latest China 2020 input-output extension table to compile the macro and micro SAM of China 2020,and finally writes relevant programs on GAMS software.This paper analyzes the impact of price fluctuations of primary energy such as coal,crude oil and natural gas on the 3E system from two perspectives of market price and price control,and explores the impact of price fluctuations of secondary energy such as refined oil,gas,thermal power and clean power on the 3E system from the perspective of full market.Based on the empirical study of the impact of energy price fluctuations on the 3E system,the following conclusions are drawn: First,the rise of energy prices will lead to the reduction of energy consumption of various industrial sectors to varying degrees,and the increase of alternative energy consumption;The rise of energy prices will also reduce the energy intensity of various industrial sectors and stimulate various industrial sectors to improve the efficiency of energy utilization.But when prices are regulated,the reduction in energy consumption and energy intensity is inhibited.Second,rising energy prices will cause inflation in the economy to a certain extent,resulting in a decline in net investment and net export.Moreover,the income of various economic entities will be negatively affected,and the welfare of residents will decline,eventually leading to economic contraction.Higher coal and thermal power prices have had the most significant effect on the contraction;The rise of energy prices will also lead to the price rise of various industrial sectors,the decrease of output and investment of non-energy industrial sectors,the increase of output and investment of alternative energy,and the decrease of residents’ consumption of various industrial sectors to varying degrees.Third,the rise of energy prices will lead to a decline in carbon emissions of various industrial sectors.The decline will increase with the increase of price and energy dependence,and the decline will weaken when the price is regulated.Therefore,we can strengthen the development of new energy technology,vigorously develop clean energy and diversify the energy supply structure.By combining strong government control with self-regulation of the market,we will regulate the prices of all types of energy,eliminate the impact of sharp fluctuations in energy prices,and maintain steady economic development in China.By promoting market-oriented energy reform,encouraging enterprises to improve energy efficiency,strengthening technological improvement,promoting the optimization of China’s industrial structure and low-carbon economic development,ensuring that economy and environmental protection go hand in hand,it is conducive to a faster and more stable recovery of China’s economy and realizing the comprehensive goal of ensuring energy supply,stabilizing the economy and protecting the environment.