| Land is the bridge and link between man and nature.Land use patterns and changes affect the stability of the ecosystem to a certain extent,which is closely related to the spatial distribution of landscape ecological risks.As an important means to measure the ecological effect of land use change,landscape ecological risk assessment is of great significance for the rational allocation of land resources and control of regional ecological risks.The rapid economic development of the Central Yunnan urban agglomeration,which is an economically and densely populated area in Yunnan Province,has led to an increasingly intense transformation of land use by human beings,an increasingly prominent contradiction between human and land,and a serious disturbance of the spatial pattern of the Production-Living-Ecological by human activities,and the resulting changes in landscape ecological risk deserve attention.In this regard,this paper takes the urban agglomeration in central Yunnan as the research area.Firstly,from the perspective of"three-life space",considering the production,living and ecological functions of urban agglomeration,the spatial and temporal evolution of"Production-Living-Ecological Space"pattern is analyzed;Secondly,the spatial autocorrelation analysis and hot spot analysis were used to evaluate the landscape ecological risk of the urban agglomeration in central Yunnan based on five periods of land use data in 2000,2005,2010,2015,and 2020.Finally,Pearson Correlation Coefficients and Geodetector were used to quantify the main drivers of landscape ecological risk change in the study area by selecting the driving factors from both natural environment and human influence.After comprehensive research and analysis,the following conclusions were drawn:(1)Ecological space is the main type of the Production-Living-Ecological Space in the Central Yunnan urban agglomeration,accounting for about 77%of the total area of the study area,followed by production space(about 20%)and living space(less than 2%).During the study period,the forest land ecological space,grassland ecological space and agricultural production space were the largest,but gradually decreased,with a decrease of 303.27 km~2,738.51 km~2and 505.5 km~2,respectively,while the area of other"Production-Living-Ecological Space"types increased overall,with industrial production space and urban living space increasing greatly.From a transfer perspective,grassland ecological space,agricultural production space,and woodland ecological space mostly transfer to urban life and industrial production space.In terms of land use intensity,the intensity of land use in the study area is high in the central-eastern region and low in the northern and southwestern regions,and the intensity of land use increases significantly with time.(2)The overall landscape ecological risk of the Central Yunnan urban agglomeration was on the rise during the study period,and the risk level of the study area was dominated by low-risk and lower-risk areas,the sum of which accounted for more than 80%of the total area of the study area.Throughout the study period,agricultural production space,grassland ecological space,and woodland ecological space were gradually fragmented,and landscape connectivity declined.In terms of time,the integrated landscape ecological risk index is 0.00826,0.00827,0.00847,0.00850,and 0.00843 in 2000,2005,2010,2015,and 2020,indicating that the risk keeps intensifying in 2000-2015,and 2015-2020 ecological risk has moderated.From the area of risk area,the area of low risk area and lower risk area decreased,while the area of medium risk area,higher risk area and high risk area increased by 1505.92km~2,707.53 km~2and 11.01 km~2,respectively.From the perspective of spatial distribution,the spatial distribution characteristics of landscape ecological risk showed high in the east and low in the west,and the high risk area was mainly concentrated in the central part of the urban agglomerations.The ecological risks in the study area have a strong positive correlation,and the characteristics of"high"and"low"agglomeration are remarkable.(3)The results of driving factors showed that NDVI and slope among natural factors have stronger explanatory power to landscape ecological risk change,while land use intensity and human impact index among anthropogenic factors are the main driving factors of LER change,and the effect of anthropogenic factors is obviously higher than that of natural factors.The results of Pearson correlation coefficients showed that higher slope,temperature,NDVI,and ESV,had a positive impact on reducing ecological risk in the landscape and helped improve the regional ecological environment.Factor detection results showed that the q-values of land use intensity and human impact index were the largest among the factors at the end of the study period,at 0.5607 and 0.5534,respectively,while temperature and soil type had the lowest explanatory power.The interaction detection results showed that the interaction between any two factors has significantly higher explanatory power for LER dynamics than a single factor,and the two-factor interaction has a synergistic enhancement effect,among which the interaction effects of ESV∩slope and land use intensity∩NDVI was most pronounced in 2000.To summarize,first of all,the sorts of"Production-Living-Ecological Space"in central Yunnan urban agglomerations are primarily woodland ecological space,grassland ecological space,and agricultural production space.The structure of"Production-Living-Ecological Space"has changed dramatically over the last 20years,with the amount and speed of change in industrial production space and urban living space clearly higher than other types of"Production-Living-Ecological Space,"and the land use intensity significantly improved during the research period.Second,the overall landscape ecological risk of urban agglomeration displays a rising and then reducing tendency,and the overall landscape ecological risk remains low.The reduction in ecological risk from 2015 to 2020 indicates that the development of“Ecological Civilization Construction”has achieved certain results.Finally,the q value of human factor is comparatively significant among the driving variables of landscape ecological risk,indicating that human factor is the primary driving force of landscape ecological risk change in the study area.As a result,in the future,we should decrease excessive human intervention in the ecosystem,reduce regional ecological risk,and achieve sustainable economic,social,and ecological development. |
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