Research On The Spatiotemporal Features And Key Drivers Of Coordination Within Energy-Environmental-Economic System In China’s Provincial Regions

With the advancement of urbanisation in China,the conflict between energy consumption,environmental management and economic development is becoming increasingly prominent.In order to achieve social stability and find a scientific path to sustainable development in China,it is important to explore mechanisms for the long-term and stable coordination of energy,environment and economic（3E）systems.Existing research has confirmed the mechanisms inherent in the energy-environment-economy triad.In order to more effectively achieve deeper analysis at the temporal and spatial scales,it is important to quantify the spatio-temporal evolutionary mechanisms of 3E system coherence and its drivers in terms of the synchronicity of subsystem development.Therefore,this study takes 30 provincial-level regions in China in the two periods of 2011-2015 and 2016-2019 as the research objects,constructs the evaluation index system of energy-environment-economy（3E）system based on the evaluation index framework system composed of 26 indicators,evaluates the development level,development speed,coordination index and 3E system coordination degree of each sub-system and 3E system in turn,and conducts spatial autocorrelation analysis on the coordination of 3E system in provincial-level regions nationwide from a local perspective,and conducts research on the coordination status of 3E system in different regions on a spatial scale.The principal component analysis was applied to extract 12 key indicators from the 26 indicators of the 3E system evaluation index system that could cover the information of the initial 3E system.Spatial econometric analysis is applied to quantify the degree of influence of each indicator on the coordinated development of the 3E system,identifying the key drivers with significant influence and their degree of influence.The results of the study show that:（1）From 2011-2019,the level of development of the subsystems and 3E systems in China’s provincial regions fluctuated,with the level of development of the subsystems improving in almost all regions,rising from mildly undeveloped to moderately developed.（2）China’s provincial-level regional subsystems and 3E systems show varying degrees of positive growth and negative regression in their development rates.（3）The coordination index of all subsystems in China’s provincial regions has increased significantly in both periods.The environmental subsystem in the northwest and northeast regions played a limiting role in the coordinated development of the 3E system,while Anhui,Jiangxi and Guangxi were at a disadvantage in the development of the economic subsystem.（4）In terms of time,from 2011-2015,there were only five regions with a 3E system coordination degree greater than 0.80;while from 2016-2019,the 3E system coordination degree of all regions in the country was above 0.85,with an overall upward trend in the coordinated development of the 3E system in China’s provincial regions.Spatially,the coordinated development is distributed in a stepped pattern from low to high,showing a trend of better in the east and worse in the west.（5）Over the two study periods,the proportion of regions showing positive spatial correlation increased from46.7%to 53.3%of the total sample.The“high-high”regions are concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta（Shanghai,Jiangsu and Zhejiang）and Shandong,while the“low-low”regions are concentrated in the relatively less developed north-western region（Xinjiang and Qinghai）.The pattern of clustering from“high-high”in the eastern region to“low-low”in the western region forms a gradient path,showing a gradual downward trend from the eastern coastal region to the western inland region.（6）The coordinated development of China’s 3E system is significantly influenced by the share of coal in total energy consumption,energy consumption per GDP,industrial emissions,SO₂ emissions,CO₂ emissions,GDP and GDP per capita.The degree of influence of the main drivers has changed over the two periods,confirming China’s progress in the transition to high-quality development.This study examines the degree of coordinated development of the 3E system at the provincial level in China,analyses its spatial and temporal evolution patterns and identifies key drivers,with the aim of exploring in depth the coordinated development patterns of the energy-environment-economy system and seeking a coordinated development path for the 3E system that meets the requirements of sustainable development.While achieving the goal of socialist modernisation,full consideration should be given to spatial autocorrelation and the key drivers affecting the coordinated development of the 3E system,especially in areas where the degree of coordination is relatively backward.Full consideration should be given to the actual situation of each region,appropriate policy recommendations should be made according to the regional characteristics of different provinces,and experience should be gained from coastal areas with better coordinated development to provide reference for areas with less coordinated development.These results can fundamentally balance the gaps and inform the coordination of subsystems and the achievement of regional sustainability in terms of limiting subsystems and consolidating 3E system coordination priorities,which in turn can help to achieve coordinated development of society as a whole,develop scientifically effective 3E system coordination policies and improve regional objectives.