Study On Driving Factors And Peaking Paths Of Carbon Emissions In The Yangtze River Delta

The issue of climate change is a common problem faced by human society in the21 st century,and China is the world’s largest carbon emitter and faces severe pressure on climate governance.As a responsible power,the Chinese government has pledged to achieve carbon peaking by 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060,and incorporate it into the overall national economic planning as an environmental constraint.The Yangtze River Delta(YRD)is an important part of China’s economy and one of the major sources of carbon emissions.Studying the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of carbon emissions in YRD,clarifying the key drivers of carbon emissions,and exploring the conditions for carbon peaking in the region accordingly will not only contribute to the transformation of low-carbon economy in YRD region,but also have a very important significance for the national carbon emission reduction.This study first uses the IPCC method to compile the carbon emission inventory of the Yangtze River Delta region from 2000 to 2020,and then takes the perspective of output scale,energy consumption scale,investment scale,and population scale,and considers the factors of output carbon intensity,energy carbon intensity,investment carbon intensity,per capita carbon intensity,investment efficiency,and energy intensity,etc.,with the help of the generalized Dirichlet index decomposition model,to Finally,Monte Carlo simulation and scenario analysis are used to construct a baseline scenario,a low-carbon development scenario and an enhanced emission reduction scenario by integrating the 14 th Five-Year Plan and 2035 development vision of each region,and to explore the peak paths of the Yangtze River Delta region under different scenarios.The study shows that(1)carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region continue to increase from 2000 to 2020,with an average annual growth rate of 5.41%,and the pressure for carbon reduction is more prominent;(2)the driving factors show that output scale,investment scale,population scale and energy consumption scale are important factors contributing to the increase of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region,while output carbon intensity and investment efficiency are the main factors promoting carbon reduction;(3)There are significant differences in the carbon emission evolution paths of the three provinces and one city in the Yangtze River Delta under different scenarios.Under the baseline scenario and the low carbon development scenario,it is difficult for the three provinces and one city to achieve carbon peaking by 2030,while the Yangtze River Delta region is expected to achieve the peaking target by 2025 under the enhanced emission reduction scenario.On the one hand,this study expands the decomposition model of carbon emission influencing factors in the three provinces and one city in the Yangtze River Delta region,providing model support for subsequent studies,and on the other hand,it enriches the study of carbon emission driving factors in the Yangtze River Delta region,so as to clarify the key influencing factors of carbon emission in the Yangtze River Delta region.In addition,the prediction model of carbon peaking in the Yangtze River Delta region is extended,which can provide new ideas for the subsequent research.This paper argues that the Yangtze River Delta region should strengthen low-carbon technology innovation,strive to improve energy utilization efficiency,and accelerate energy restructuring and renewable energy share.