Decomposition Of Industrial Carbon Emission Factors In Xinjiang And Forecast Analysis Of Peak Reaching

The greenhouse effect has brought tremendous challenges and challenges to human social and economic life.In order to cope with global climate change,low-carbon development is an important strategic choice for all countries.China is the largest developing country in the world and the country with the largest carbon emissions.It needs to attach great importance to the promotion of energy conservation and emission reduction.With the implementation of the western development and the belt and road initiative and other strategic policies,Xinjiang has attracted a large number of industries moving to the west to develop in Xinjiang with its advantages of resources.In the process of vigorous industrial development in Xinjiang,it has not only promoted the rapid economic development in Xinjiang but also brought many environmental pollution problems to Xinjiang,causing a serious imbalance between Xinjiang’s economic development and the environment.Therefore,this thesis takes the carbon emissions of Xinjiang industry as the core research variable,and analyzes the situation that the carbon emissions of Xinjiang industry reach the peak,in order to find a development path to realize peak carbon dioxide emissions for Xinjiang industry and provide effective reference for the overall carbon emission reduction target of Xinjiang and even the whole country.Based on the change process of industrial carbon emissions in Xinjiang in the past 20 years,this thesis first uses IPCC emission factor method to measure the carbon emissions of Xinjiang’s industry,heavy industry and light industry from 2001 to 2020,and then measures the carbon emissions of heavy industry and light industry in 2005,2010,2015 and 2020.On this basis,the factors affecting the carbon emissions of Xinjiang’s industry,heavy industry and light industry are factor-decomposed by using the generalized Dirty Index decomposition method,and the factors affecting the carbon emissions of the top six sub-industries of heavy industry and the top five sub-industries of light industry are decomposed and analyzed.Based on the decomposition results,the different development trends of Xinjiang’s industry’s carbon emissions in 2022-2035 under the three scenarios of benchmark scenario,green development scenario and technology breakthrough scenario are predicted by combining scenario simulation and Monte Carlo simulation method,which will provide corresponding emission reduction suggestions for Xinjiang’s industrial industry to realize peak carbon dioxide emissions.The results of this study show that: First,industrial energy consumption accounts for 55% of Xinjiang’s total energy consumption,and coal is the main energy source in the energy structure;Secondly,the overall carbon emission of Xinjiang’s industry has been increasing year by year.Although the growth rate of carbon emission has been reduced in recent years,it is still positive.More than 90% of its emission comes from heavy industry,which contributes only a small part,and the growth rate of carbon emission from heavy industry is much higher than that of light industry.Thirdly,through the decomposition of the influencing factors of industrial carbon emissions in Xinjiang by the generalized di’s index method,it is found that output scale,investment carbon intensity and energy scale have obvious promotion effect,and investment efficiency has strong inhibition effect on carbon emissions;Fourthly,due to different development characteristics,there are differences in the impact of heavy and light industries on carbon emissions.The promotion and inhibition factors of carbon emissions from heavy industry are the same as those of industry as a whole.For light industry,the main promotion factors are: output scale,investment carbon intensity and energy consumption scale.Investment efficiency is the main factor to inhibit carbon emissions from light industry;Fifth,the promoting and inhibiting factors of carbon emissions in the heavy industry sub-industry are the same as the influencing factors of the heavy industry as a whole,among which the changing trend of carbon emissions in the production and supply industries of electricity and heat is similar to that of the heavy industry as a whole,and the influencing factors of carbon emissions in the light industry sub-industry have the same direction as that of the light industry as a whole;Sixth,under the benchmark scenario,the carbon emissions of Xinjiang’s industries increased year by year at a relatively high rate.Under the green development scenario,the peak carbon dioxide emissions target could not be achieved on schedule,but the industrial carbon emissions decreased significantly.It is expected to have a turning point around 2035,and only under the technology breakthrough scenario can the peak carbon dioxide emissions target be achieved by 2035.