Research On The Macroeconomic Impact Of Carbon Tax In China And Its Strategy Selection

As one of the policy tools for emission reduction,carbon tax has been widely recognized in the international community.Based on the actual situation of China’s own economic development,this thesis discusses the institutional basis and necessity of comprehensive carbon tax in China on the one hand,constructs a macroeconomic model on the other hand,discusses carbon tax and its macroeconomic impact,and lays a solid foundation for formulating targeted strategies and suggestions for the follow-up of the tax.Specifically,firstly,by constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model that includes households,green and brown manufacturers,and governments,the research on carbon tax,macro impact and strategy selection is placed in a unified framework,in which the parameter settings of the three sectors are to refer to the results of current mainstream literature research at home and abroad,and calibrate according to the actual data of domestic carbon emissions,and use Matlab and Dynare tools to solve them.Secondly,the problem of optimal carbon tax rate is solved under the Ramsey optimal equilibrium framework.Under the condition of parameter calibration,the optimal carbon tax rate is 0.0046,that is,0.46%,and innovatively converts this optimal tax rate into the usual transaction price,that is,the tax rate,emission and output steady state in the model correspond to China’s actual carbon emission trading price,emission,and actual output.Third,based on the above model,macro impact analysis under various policy experiments and numerical simulations is carried out,including short-term impact and long-term impact analysis.In the shortterm simulation analysis,the short-term macroeconomic effects of carbon taxes and international carbon emission shocks are mainly examined,that is,impulse response analysis is used to investigate the impact of exogenous shocks on major macroeconomic variables,emissions,emission reduction costs and emission reduction intensity.In the long-term simulation analysis,the analysis of the timing of carbon tax,the design of collection and management,the rhythm of taxation and the international game is mainly reflected.The findings suggest that a step-by-step and orderly increase in carbon taxes has the least macroeconomic impact in the long run.Therefore,domestic carbon tax collection should not only grasp the implementation rhythm and gradually and orderly promote carbon tax,but also formulate appropriate carbon tax rates according to national conditions,and cannot blindly copy the experience of developed countries to help smooth economic transition.The negative externalities of carbon emissions make international cooperation the only optimal equilibrium in the emission reduction game.Therefore,China should pay close attention to the international emission reduction situation,dynamically adjust its emission reduction strategy,and minimize the negative impact on the macroeconomy.Finally,based on the above-mentioned research,strategies and guidelines are formulated to enrich and improve the carbon tax system from the aspects of timing of levy start,research on collection and management design,tax rhythm and international game,and supporting measures including weakening macro impact,coordinating carbon trading and existing tax systems.